2025年11月16日 新馬戦 予想：東京・京都・福島の注目良血馬徹底分析

[Updated: 2026-01-23 16:55:44] Revised by AI Assistant

Analysis by AI

Key Takeaways: November 16th Newcomer Races

• Elite Pedigrees Converge: Promising contenders like Danon Mustang at Tokyo and Access at Kyoto are set to debut, shaping the future Classic race landscape.
• Top Jockeys in Action: World-class riders such as Christophe Lemaire, Cristian Demuro, and Yutaka Take gather for the newcomer races, promising heightened competition and thrilling contests.
• Crucial Training ‘Uptick’ Signs: Look for the ‘arrow’ indicator in training data, signifying an upward trend in a horse’s condition—a vital ‘buy’ signal for predicting race readiness.
• AI vs. Expert Insight: Fukushima Race 6 presents a fascinating divergence between expert assessments and AI predictions, highlighting potential value in horses highly rated by both.

Introduction: A Sunday of Star-Studded Newcomer Debuts on November 16th

Sunday, November 16, 2025, marks a pivotal day in the Japanese racing calendar, featuring five 2-year-old newcomer races across Tokyo, Kyoto, and Fukushima. Particularly, the turf races at Tokyo and Kyoto are anticipated to unveil numerous highly-regarded prospects that could dominate future Classic campaigns.

The caliber of these races is further elevated by the exceptional lineup of top international jockeys. Kyoto Racecourse, in particular, will see Cristian Demuro, Damian Lane, and Christophe Lemaire in Race 4, followed by Yutaka Take, Damian Lane, and Cristian Demuro in Race 5. Not to be outdone, Tokyo Race 5 features Antoine Pouchin, Tom Marquand, and Norihiro Yokoyama. Such a convergence of world-class talent in newcomer races is rare, underscoring the serious intentions of the stables and signaling an exceptionally high level of competition.

This analysis places significant emphasis on the “arrow” indicator found in training data. An “upward” arrow signifies that a horse’s condition is rapidly improving towards its debut—a crucial “buy” signal for bettors. Our race-by-race predictions delve into detailed training times, in-depth stable comments, and for the Fukushima races, incorporate insights from AI predictions to offer a comprehensive guide.

Tokyo Racecourse: November 16, 2025 Newcomer Race Predictions

Tokyo Race 4: 2-Year-Old Newcomer (Dirt 1600m) – In-Depth Analysis

Race Overview: The Tokyo Dirt 1600m begins on the turf, minimizing gate bias and emphasizing pure stamina and sustained speed on a demanding stage.

• Top Contender: Taiki Blitzen
  • Predicted Odds: 2.8x (1st Favorite)
  • Stable Comment: Trainer Kei Ito’s stable offered an uncharacteristically confident remark, stating, “He has speed and power. His movement is above standard, so he’s ready for his debut.”
  • Training Performance: His final workout decisively surpassed seasoned horses, clearly demonstrating his high level of completion.
  • Pedigree: By Mozu Ascot out of a Gold Allure mare, a cross optimally suited for dirt mile distances.
  • Analysis: An absolute cornerstone for predictions, showing exceptional reliability for his first start.
• Strong Challenger: Hollywood Glam
  • Predicted Odds: 4.3x (2nd Favorite)
  • Stable Comment: The Hayashi stable noted, “He still has some room to develop, but he has good conformation and dirt should suit him.”
  • Training Performance: Recorded an exceptional closing lap in his final workout, rare for a dirt newcomer. This hints at “outstanding ability despite still being a work in progress.”
  • Analysis: With Tom Marquand in the saddle, if his inherent talent is unleashed, he poses the primary threat to Taiki Blitzen.
• Horses to Watch: Haokanoa & Lux Dream
  • Haokanoa (Predicted Odds: 5.6x): Traveling from Ritto, trained by K. Ozaki. While temperament is a concern, his training has been highly praised.
  • Lux Dream (Predicted Odds: 8.4x): Also traveling from Ritto, trained by K. Ozaki. Despite noted immaturity, he clocked a blistering time in his final workout.
  • Analysis: Both show above-average movements in training. The key factors will be the “long transportation from Ritto” and their “temperament on race day.” Calmness in the paddock will be the most crucial assessment.

Tokyo Race 5: 2-Year-Old Newcomer (Turf 1600m) – In-Depth Analysis

Race Overview: This is one of Japanese racing’s most significant debut stages, where future Classic horses begin their journey. Absolute burst of speed and race intelligence are paramount.

• Primary Focus: Danon Mustang
  • Predicted Odds: 1.7x
  • Expert Press Ratings: Universally marked with “◎◎◎◎” – a complete domination.
  • Stable Comment: Yamazaki, assistant to Trainer Hiroshi Tanaka, raved, “He’s light-footed and has excellent racing sense. He should show even more on the turf.”
  • Training Performance: Recorded successive blazing times against open-class older horses in woodchip workouts.
  • Pedigree: While his sire is a US Dirt G1 winner, he has shown strong adaptability to Japan’s fast turf tracks.
  • Analysis: Possesses virtually no weaknesses.
• Strong Challengers: Ripi & Oninoutage
  • Ripi (Predicted Odds: 5.3x): Trainer Sho Saionji’s stable praised him, saying, “He responds well when asked” and “has a light stride,” highlighting his race sense. His speed, inherited from sire Lord Kanaloa, will be a major asset.
  • Oninoutage (Predicted Odds: 7.0x): Conducted his final workout on the turf course. His last furlong time of 11.3 seconds at Miho’s turf track surpassed Danon Mustang’s woodchip time. This suggests a high potential for turf versatility, potentially compensating for any “hindquarter weakness.”
• Pedigree Spotlight: Matenro Navy
  • Predicted Odds: 5.8x
  • Stable Comment: Trainer Hiroshi Matsunaga’s stable expressed high hopes based on bloodline, stating, “His older brother has also performed well, so we hope he follows suit.”
  • Training Performance: Has been thoroughly schooled and is in perfect condition.
  • Analysis: With his swift bloodline and the skillful riding of Norihiro Yokoyama, he has ample power to contend for the top spots.

Kyoto Racecourse: November 16, 2025 Newcomer Race Predictions

Kyoto Race 4: 2-Year-Old Newcomer (Dirt 1800m) – In-Depth Analysis

Race Overview: The Kyoto Dirt 1800m is a tough course where the distance from the start to the 3rd corner is long, allowing the pace to settle. Pure power and stamina in the final straight are crucial.

• Key Contender (1): Mercantour
  • Predicted Odds: 3.4x
  • Jockey: Secured Cristian Demuro.
  • Stable Comment: Trainer Haruki Sugiyama’s stable acknowledges his potential but remains somewhat cautious.
  • Training Performance: A rigorous workout on the CW (Chippu Wood) track a week prior, followed by a confirming canter on the uphill track—a classic “newcomer race” preparation. The engagement of C. Demuro signals serious intent.
• Key Contender (2): Kanfu John & American Ism
  • Kanfu John (Predicted Odds: 4.8x): Ridden by Christophe Lemaire. Overtook a 1-win class veteran in his final workout, demonstrating strong race sense.
  • American Ism (Predicted Odds: 4.8x): With Damian Lane aboard, the Ikezoe stable points out areas for improvement, yet he showcased an astounding last furlong of 11.1 seconds in a CW workout, indicating incredible burst.
  • Analysis: A compelling battle between the solid Kanfu John and the explosive American Ism.
• Dark Horse: Wazaogi
  • Predicted Odds: 5.7x
  • Training Performance: Praised for his excellent physique and earned an upward arrow for condition.
  • Stable Comment: Assistant Mitsuya’s comment, “He’s been worked thoroughly and has become more like a racehorse,” aligns perfectly with his improving training arrow.
  • Analysis: With top foreign jockeys on the favorites, the combination with Atsuya Nishimura could see him break into the top placings.

Kyoto Race 5: 2-Year-Old Newcomer (Turf 2000m) – In-Depth Analysis

Race Overview: A select field of nine horses debuts over the 2000m turf, a distance that demands stamina and hints at future potential. The focus is largely split between two impeccably bred prospects.

• Top Contender: Access
  • Predicted Odds: 2.4x
  • Stable Comment: The Kamimura stable confidently declares him to be in perfect condition.
  • Training Performance: In his final workout on November 12, he effortlessly outpaced Dante Barows, an open-class older horse, by 0.1 seconds on the Ritto uphill track. A newcomer, without being seriously asked, outperforming an open-class runner is extraordinary, signaling immeasurable, S-class potential.
• Strong Challenger: Long Tall Sally
  • Predicted Odds: 2.7x
  • Jockey/Trainer: The golden duo of Yutaka Take and trainer Yuichi Fukunaga.
  • Stable Comment: Trainer Fukunaga stated, “He’s well-prepared and in excellent condition,” adding, “He’s highly maneuverable and starts quickly,” emphasizing his advanced readiness.
  • Analysis: While Access showcased monstrous potential in his training times, Long Tall Sally’s strength lies in her “race-day readiness.” It’s easy to envision Yutaka Take maximizing her strengths for a perfectly executed, winning performance.
• Intriguing Prospect: Red Sedona
  • Predicted Odds: 5.7x
  • Distance Suitability: The stable confidently asserts her suitability for the 2000m distance.
  • Training Performance: Her final workout on the “Ritto Turf” demonstrated sharp acceleration.
  • Analysis: The stable’s comments and training align perfectly, suggesting she is impeccably prepared to deploy a “long, sustained burst of speed” on this challenging stage.

Fukushima Racecourse: November 16, 2025 Newcomer Race Predictions

Fukushima Race 6: 2-Year-Old Newcomer (Dirt 1700m) – In-Depth Analysis [AI Prediction vs. Expert Evaluation]

Race Overview: The Fukushima Dirt 1700m is a tricky course with tight turns and varying elevations, favoring horses with strong all-around ability and adaptability. Here, the divergence between expert (Truncated for safety if too long)