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最新レース予想[Updated: 2026-01-23…
[Updated: 2026-01-23 17:01:51] Revised by AI Assistant
Analysis by AI
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The 2025 Japan Cup is set to be a monumental clash, with four formidable European challengers poised to break a two-decade winning drought. This comprehensive analysis dives deep into the profiles, recent performances, and suitability for Tokyo’s demanding 2400m turf of each invited foreign horse. We’ll explore the strategic “team tactics” employed by top European stables, aiming for a historic victory after 20 years. Featuring Europe’s potential current strongest contender, Calandagan, and the Irish Derby winner Los Angeles seeking redemption, we break down each horse’s strengths, weaknesses, and their crucial role in this high-stakes international showdown.
The 2025 Japan Cup is poised to redefine its international identity, marking a pivotal year for global thoroughbred racing. JRA has officially announced that a total of four foreign-trained horses – two from Aidan O’Brien’s stable in Ireland and two from F. Graffard’s yard in France – have accepted their invitations. These four challengers aren’t just facing Japan’s formidable local talent; they are confronting a formidable “wall” – the Japan Cup itself – which has resisted foreign victories for two decades, ever since Alkaased (GB) triumphed in 2005.
This 20-year “victory drought” underscores the dramatic improvement in Japanese racing quality and the unique demands of Tokyo Racecourse’s lightning-fast 2400m turf. Significantly, two of Europe’s top trainers are deploying a “team strategy” with two entries each. This isn’t merely relying on individual brilliance; it’s a testament to the European contingents’ serious intent and strategic planning to conquer this seemingly impregnable fortress. All four horses are scheduled to arrive at Narita Airport on November 20th, before heading to the Tokyo Racecourse International Stables for their final preparations. This report provides an in-depth analysis and evaluation of each horse’s profile, recent performance, and suitability for the challenging Tokyo 2400m stage.
| Horse Name | Age/Sex | Trainer (Country) | Sire | Key G1 Wins & Recent Performance Summary |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Los Angeles | C 4 | A. O’Brien (IRE) | Camelot | 3 G1 wins (2024 Irish Derby, 2025 Tattersalls Gold Cup, etc.). Last start: Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe 17th. |
| Queenstown | G 5 | A. O’Brien (IRE) | Galileo | Maiden winner only. Recent: Cadran (G1, 4000m) 3rd, Prix Royal-Oak (G1, 3100m) 2nd (stayer). |
| Calandagan | G 4 | F. Graffard (FR) | Gleneagles | 3 consecutive G1 wins (Grand Prix de Saint-Cloud, King George, British Champions S.). Defeated world-ranked #1 in last start. |
| Goliath | G 5 | F. Graffard (FR) | Adlerflug | 2 G1 wins (2024 King George, 2025 Grosser Preis von Baden). Last start: Breeders’ Cup Turf 11th. Last year: Japan Cup 6th. |
Calandagan (4yo Gelding, trained by F. Graffard in France, by Gleneagles) is an Aga Khan homebred, widely regarded as the closest contender to being the current strongest horse in Europe. His impressive three consecutive G1 victories in the Grand Prix de Saint-Cloud, King George VI and Queen Elizabeth Stakes, and the British Champions Stakes all represent the pinnacle of European turf racing. With a career record of 7 wins from 13 starts, all on turf, his pedigree is noteworthy. His sire, Gleneagles, was a top-class miler, and Calandagan being a gelding is crucial: it means his career is focused solely on maximizing his racing potential and prize money, free from stallion duties.
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Calandagan’s performance in the 2025 season has been nothing short of sensational. He has achieved a remarkable triple G1 victory across varying distances and prestigious tracks: the Grand Prix de Saint-Cloud (G1, 2400m), the King George VI and Queen Elizabeth Stakes (G1, 2390m), and the British Champions Stakes (G1, 2000m). His most recent triumph in the British Champions Stakes was particularly commanding, where he decisively defeated Ombudsman, then rated the world’s sole number one horse, by 2¼ lengths. Reports indicate the race was run at a solid pace, and when Ombudsman drew alongside in the straight, Calandagan unleashed an exceptional burst of acceleration to pull clear. This G1 hat-trick showcases his versatility, proving both 2400m stamina and 2000m speed with a powerful turn of foot – precisely the qualities demanded for success in the Japan Cup.
Calandagan’s strongest argument for being a leading Japan Cup contender isn’t just his stellar record, but the fact he left the world’s top-ranked horse behind with a devastating “change of gear.” He demonstrated a Japanese-style burst of speed on Ascot’s challenging turf. The only remaining concern is his immediate adaptation to Japan’s firm and fast “high-speed track.” However, this concern is significantly mitigated by his trainer’s invaluable “experience.” F. Graffard personally experienced the Japan Cup last year with Goliath, who finished 6th. Having a deep understanding of the unique track firmness and race pace in Japan, Graffard’s decision to send Calandagan is a profound statement of confidence – a belief that Calandagan possesses the explosive kick necessary to overcome the demands of Japanese racing.
Goliath (5yo Gelding, trained by F. Graffard in France, by Adlerflug) is Calandagan’s stablemate and returns for his second consecutive Japan Cup challenge. His greatest asset is the “experience” gained from finishing 6th in the 2024 Japan Cup. He has already navigated the long-distance travel, quarantine procedures, and the specific nuances of Japan’s race environment and pace. Analyzing his performance last year, he tracked mid-pack and unleashed a very fast final 600m split of 33.5 seconds to finish 6th, indicating a “lack of burst” in the crucial final stages. This hands-on experience and data are invaluable resources for the Graffard stable in formulating their 2025 “team strategy.”
Goliath is a proven G1 winner, having captured the 2024 King George VI and Queen Elizabeth Stakes. In the 2025 season, he showed a return to form by winning the Grosser Preis von Baden (G1) on September 7th. However, his overall performance in 2025 has been inconsistent. Following his Baden victory, the connections paid a substantial supplementary fee for a US excursion.
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Goliath competed in the Breeders’ Cup Turf (G1) at Del Mar on November 1st, where he finished a disappointing 11th. This result presents a serious concern for his Japan Cup prospects. He is in the midst of a demanding global campaign, and the short turnaround of just a few weeks after a significant defeat in the US raises fatigue alarms. Considering this strenuous schedule and the overwhelming form of his stablemate Calandagan, it’s reasonable to analyze Goliath’s role in the 2025 Japan Cup as a “support” horse, rather than an “ace.” With his prior course experience and ample stamina, it’s highly probable that Trainer Graffard will utilize Goliath to set a strong, high-level pace for his stable star, or perhaps to act as a “shield,” drawing attention and marking key Japanese rivals.
Los Angeles (4yo Colt, trained by A. O’Brien in Ireland, by Camelot) is a distinguished G1-winning classic horse from the illustrious O’Brien stable, boasting three top-tier victories.
Los Angeles secured three G1 victories: the 2023 Critérium de Saint-Cloud (G1, 2000m), the 2024 Irish Derby (G1, 2400m), and the 2025 Tattersalls Gold Cup (G1, 2100m). His 2024 season was particularly brilliant, featuring a 3rd in the Epsom Derby, a triumphant win in the Irish Derby, and a strong 3rd in the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe, establishing him as a top contender of his generation. His profile, having won a classic at the identical “2400m” distance as the Japan Cup, is ideally suited on paper.
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Despite a promising start to 2025 with a victory in the Tattersalls Gold Cup (G1) in May, his form has since deteriorated significantly. Subsequent poor runs include a 5th in the Prince of Wales’s Stakes, 4th in the Royal Whip Stakes, and 4th in the Prix Foy. Most alarmingly, his last start was a career-worst 17th in the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe (G1), a race where he had previously excelled with a 3rd place finish in 2024.
This Japan Cup entry is nothing less than a desperate attempt at “resurrection” for Los Angeles. Trainer Aidan O’Brien might be gambling on the possibility that Los Angeles profoundly disliked the heavy, testing European ground during the 2025 autumn season. The firm, fast turf of Tokyo Racecourse could very well be the “cure” to restore his brilliant 2024 form, making him the biggest “X-factor” among the entire field. To maximize his chances, O’Brien has brought stablemate Queenstown along. By having Queenstown lead the race and transform the 2400m into a pure test of stamina, O’Brien aims to create the optimal winning scenario for Los Angeles.
Queenstown (5yo Gelding, trained by A. O’Brien in Ireland, by Galileo) stands out as the most unconventional contender among the invited foreign horses for the Japan Cup.
While Queenstown’s only victory came in a maiden race on his third start, his true strength lies in his extreme distance aptitude. In his last two outings, he has performed commendably in Europe’s premier ultra-long-distance G1 races, finishing 3rd in the 4000m Prix du Cadran (G1) and 2nd in the 3100m Prix Royal-Oak (G1). These results firmly establish his credentials as a top-class stayer in races demanding immense stamina.
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The question naturally arises: why would a 4000m specialist enter the 2400m Japan Cup? His connection as Los Angeles’s stablemate, his front-running style, and his trainer being Aidan O’Brien make his role 100% clear. Queenstown’s mission is to act as a “pacemaker” (rabbit) for his stable star, Los Angeles. Utilizing his Galileo-sired stamina, he will aim to set a blistering pace over Tokyo’s 2400m, neutralizing the potent “burst of speed” characteristic of Japanese horses and converting the race into a gruelling stamina test for his stablemate. His inclusion is a highly strategic maneuver designed to secure victory for the O’Brien camp.
| Horse Name | 2025 Key G1 Wins | Recent Big Race Performance | JC Suitability (2400m) | JC Suitability (High-Speed Track) | Analyst’s Assessment (Role) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Calandagan | 3 G1 Wins (FR/UK) | British Champions S. 1st | ◎ (2400m G1 Winner) | △ (Uncertain) | Ace (Top Contender) |
| Goliath | Grosser Preis von Baden (G1) | Breeders’ Cup Turf 11th | ◯ (JC 6th Experience) | ◯ (Experienced) | Support (Experience/Shield) |
| Los Angeles | Tattersalls Gold Cup (G1) | Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe 17th | ◎ (2400m G1 Winner) | ◎ (Adaptation Expected) | Ace (X-Factor) |
| Queenstown | (None) | Prix Royal-Oak 2nd (3100m) | × (Distance Too Short) | × (Unsuited) | Support (Pacemaker) |
The 2025 Japan Cup foreign challenge presents a clear narrative of two distinct “teams” vying for supremacy.
Ultimately, the success of these European challengers hinges on two critical factors: their ability to adapt to Japan’s unique high-speed turf and the effectiveness of their meticulously planned team strategies. The 20-year drought for foreign horses highlights the exceptional demands of the Japan Cup. Calandagan appears to be the most naturally suited to the required blend of stamina and speed, while Los Angeles’s potential for redemption on a firmer surface, coupled with Queenstown’s tactical support, adds an intriguing layer to the narrative. Goliath’s experience provides a crucial foundation for the Graffard team. This year’s Japan Cup promises to be a thrilling tactical battle, where European ingenuity and raw equine power will face the ultimate test against Japan’s racing elite.