若駒盃 2025 予想：血統・展開からの徹底分析

[Updated: 2026-01-23 19:23:03] Revised by AI Assistant

Wakakoma Cup (P) Open: Overview and Significance

Scheduled for November 21, 2025, at Nagoya Racecourse, the 11th race, the “Wakakoma Cup (P) Open,” is a crucial milestone for the future of Tokai public horse racing. This 1500-meter dirt race for two-year-old Thoroughbreds, run under weight-for-age conditions, serves as a vital selection stage for the upcoming Graded races at year-end and into the new year, as well as the prestigious three-year-old Classic road. This article offers a multi-faceted analysis of each contender’s ability, examining Nagoya Racecourse’s unique track bias and their pedigree suitability, to provide an expert perspective on the race’s deeper dynamics.

Understanding the Race Conditions and Course Characteristics at Nagoya

The 1500-meter dirt course at Nagoya Racecourse is notoriously demanding. Due to the distance from the start to the first turn and the nature of its spiral curve, it demands more than just simple speed. Success on this track requires both exceptional early pace (“ten no hayasa“) and the sustained stamina (“sokojikara“) to maintain a strong finish. The race will reveal whether established favorites will demonstrate their class or if emerging talents can rise to the occasion.

Key Contender Analysis: Ultimatum’s Dominant Prowess

The primary focus of this race is the exceptional ability of Ultimatum (Colt, 2, Imatsu Hiroshi Stable). He is widely regarded as the top-class two-year-old in the current Nagoya generation.

Ultimatum: Data That Proves His Class Apart

• Performance in Next Star Nagoya: On October 30, 2025, Ultimatum delivered a stellar performance in the “Next Star Nagoya (2-year-old Open),” finishing a mere nose second to the winner, Mimoza no Kiseki.
• Remarkable Race Time: “1 minute 37.2 seconds”: This time, achieved on a good track, is an exceptional figure for a two-year-old race.
  • He finished 1.2 seconds ahead of his rival, Ponkotu Sword (1 minute 38.4 seconds), and even further ahead of Nagoyabashiri (estimated 1 minute 39.0 seconds) and Little Lily (estimated 1 minute 39.6 seconds). A 1.2-second margin equates to approximately 7 to 8 lengths. For Ponkotu Sword to overturn this significant class difference in a rematch under the same weight conditions, it would require both a major stumble from Ultimatum and dramatic improvement from Ponkotu Sword.
• Race Dynamics: Throughout the race, Ultimatum consistently maintained a position within the leading pack, absorbing pressure. Despite this, he closed his final three furlongs in 40.0 seconds, demonstrating an exceptionally high balance of absolute speed and stamina. His narrow defeat is attributed to a combination of his gate position and the specific race development.

Pedigree Analysis: The Potential for Smart Falcon’s Masterpiece

• Sire: Smart Falcon: A legendary front-runner who conquered prestigious races like the JBC Classic and Tokyo Daishoten. His progeny are known for their exceptional early speed and powerful acceleration, making their front-running capability a major asset on smaller regional tracks. Ultimatum’s “lead and sustain” racing style is a direct inheritance from his sire.
• Dam’s Sire: Hishi Miracle: A proven long-distance champion, winner of the Kikuka Sho, Tenno Sho (Spring), and Takarazuka Kinen. This “speed × stamina” cross, combining the speed-oriented Smart Falcon with Hishi Miracle, contributes to Ultimatum’s crucial “final push” in the 1500m race and enhances his high, unyielding cardiovascular endurance.

Thorough Examination of Rival Contenders: Uncovering Upset Scenarios

In horse racing, nothing is ever absolute. The possibility of a shuffled outcome, influenced by race dynamics or the rapid growth typical of two-year-olds, means the established hierarchy could be overturned.

Ponkotu Sword: The Explosive Power of Curren Black Hill

• Next Star Nagoya 4th Place: Finished 1.2 seconds behind Ultimatum, but was only 0.1 seconds shy of third place in a close battle. His race time of 1 minute 38.4 seconds is certainly respectable.
• Early Maturity and Power from Daiwa Major Line: Sire Curren Black Hill produces offspring known for their early development and inherent power. His progeny, especially when combined with a dam by Orfevre, possess immense explosive power when conditions align. This combination suggests that his power could be a significant advantage in tough track conditions.

Nagoyabashiri: Matersky’s Rapid Genes

• Pure Speed Horse: Sire Matersky is a speed specialist with a notable second-place finish in the Breeders’ Cup Sprint in the United States. While fundamentally a sprinter, Nagoyabashiri has demonstrated capability at 1500m with a second-place finish. In his previous outing, race development hindered his time, but if he can secure a smooth, forward position, he has the potential to stick around for a strong finish.

Little Lily: The Enduring Power of a U.S.-Bred Horse

• Untapped Potential: Her sire, Firenze Fire (U.S.-bred), is known to produce progeny with high adaptability to Japanese dirt tracks. Her dam’s sire, Kurofune, revolutionized the dirt racing scene in Japan, and horses carrying his blood tend to show superior dirt performance. Little Lily demonstrated promising form in her last race, finishing second in the October Future (1 minute 39.6 seconds). If her growth curve continues its upward trajectory, she is a viable contender for a placing.

Course Bias and Race Development Simulation for Wakakoma Cup

Recent races at Nagoya Racecourse (mid-November) have seen track conditions ranging from “slightly heavy” to “good,” with a clear advantage for front-running and prominent runners. This indicates a strong “first-mover advantage” trend.

Analysis of Track Tendencies

The current Nagoya track demands a certain level of speed, but it’s not conducive to an extreme record-breaking pace. Race results from November 12, including Astrabianco’s gate-to-wire victory, clearly highlight the prevailing advantage for horses running on or near the lead.

The Key to Race Development: The Early Pace Battle

Horses likely to assert for the lead include Ultimatum (Gate 8), Nagano King Diamond (Gate 7), and Nagoyabashiri (Gate 9).

• Predicted Scenario: Ultimatum is highly favored to either take the lead naturally or settle comfortably on the outside in second position. Even if Nagano King Diamond or Nagoyabashiri challenge for the lead, Ultimatum possesses the mental composure to rate his race. The pace is expected to be moderate to slightly fast. This kind of demanding pace would particularly benefit Ultimatum, whose inherent ability thrives in a war of attrition. Should the pace be exceptionally slow, his burst of acceleration is more than capable of adapting.

Wakakoma Cup: Full Field Detailed Evaluation Matrix

Each of the 12 entrants has been comprehensively evaluated across four stages (S~C), considering their pedigree, recent race performance, current condition, and jockey compatibility.