[Updated: 2026-01-23 18:18:30] Revised by AI Assistant
Analysis by AI
The 50th Elizabeth Queen Cup (G1) is set to electrify Kyoto Racecourse on November 16, 2025. This ultimate battle for supremacy pits talented three-year-old fillies against seasoned older mares. In this comprehensive preview, we delve into crucial race trends with data-driven insights and conduct an in-depth diagnosis of the weekly training sessions for all 19 registered contenders, including standout names like Regaleira and Stellenbosch. Join us as we uncover each horse’s current condition, getting to the very heart of the race prediction.
Key Takeaways from This Analysis
- Regaleira, Lavanda, and Lilac have shown exceptional form in their weekly training, indicating they are in peak condition.
- Paradise Reine possesses a top-tier pedigree for course suitability, while Erica Express’s stable has confirmed significant improvement in her condition. Both are strong contenders as three-year-olds benefiting from a crucial weight advantage.
- Sapphira is poised for a major rebound, with her previous race performance considered an outlier, thanks to a potent pedigree and sharp training.
- Data analysis highlights Regaleira and Paradise Reine, while weekly training evaluations draw particular attention to Lavanda and Lilac.
Race Prediction Essentials: Kyoto Turf 2200m (B Course) Trend Analysis
On November 16, 2025, the 50th running of the Elizabeth Queen Cup (G1) will take center stage at Kyoto Racecourse. This is a truly defining moment – a “Queen’s Decisive Battle” where three-year-old fillies, fresh from the Triple Tiara’s final leg, the Shuka Sho, clash for the first time under identical conditions with seasoned older mares. This year’s field is stacked: G1 winners from last year’s classics like Regaleira and Stellenbosch (both 4-year-olds) face formidable challengers in surging three-year-olds such as Erica Express and Paradise Reine, who battled fiercely in the Shuka Sho. Adding to the intrigue are Coconut Brown, who impressed in the Sapporo Kinen, and Lavanda, an overwhelming winner of her prep race. This diverse lineup promises an enthralling contest on the historic Yodo course. In this article, we dissect the key factors for a successful prediction, armed with crucial data insights.
Point 1: The Stage — Kyoto Turf 2200m (Outer Course)
The Kyoto Turf 2200m utilizes the outer course, a challenging track that demands both stamina and speed. From the starting gate, there’s a generous distance to the first corner, followed by a gentle uphill incline that stretches almost to the third corner. The pivotal moment of the race typically unfolds on the downhill slope from just past the third corner through the fourth. Here, the pace intensifies dramatically, setting up either a burst of acceleration over the flat approximately 400-meter straight or a sustained drive capitalizing on the downhill momentum. As this is a B course usage week, the inner part of the track may be in pristine condition. Fundamentally, this course layout minimizes flukes, truly testing a horse’s comprehensive ability encompassing both stamina and explosive speed.
Point 2: Pedigree Trends (Sire Data)
On this specific course, certain bloodlines have demonstrated a remarkable propensity for success. Recent sire data for Kyoto Turf 2200m places Kizuna at the forefront with an exceptional winning percentage of 14.6% and an even more impressive quinella rate of 29.3%. Heart’s Cry follows closely in second, boasting a 12.9% win rate and 19.4% quinella rate, while Gold Ship ranks third with a 14.3% win rate and 17.9% quinella rate. Among this year’s registered contenders, Paradise Reine (by Kizuna), Sapphira (by Heart’s Cry), Regaleira (by Suave Richard, a successor in the Heart’s Cry lineage), and both Vermicelli and Fair Erung (by Gold Ship) all carry these potent pedigree advantages. Horses with such powerful bloodline connections are analyzed to possess a significant edge in course suitability.
Point 3: Three-Year-Olds vs. Older Mares (Weight Difference)
The Elizabeth Queen Cup is a weight-for-age contest, where three-year-old fillies carry 54kg, while older mares (four years and above) carry 56kg. This crucial 2kg weight differential has historically played a substantial role in shaping the race’s outcome. This year, Erica Express and Paradise Reine, who showcased strong performances with second and third-place finishes in the Shuka Sho, represent the formidable three-year-old contingent. The pivotal question is whether they can harness their 54kg advantage to overcome the seasoned older mares carrying 56kg, including G1 winners Regaleira (4-year-old) and Stellenbosch (4-year-old), as well as the strong Sapporo Kinen runner-up, Coconut Brown (5-year-old). Discerning the delicate balance of power between these generations is absolutely central to our prediction.
Elizabeth Queen Cup 2025: In-Depth Weekly Training Column (Full Field Analysis)
Here, we provide a detailed analysis and evaluation in a column format for all 19 horses entered in the Elizabeth Queen Cup. This includes a thorough review of their weekly training sessions, insightful comments from their stables and jockeys, and an assessment of their previous race performances.
Regaleira
Evaluation & Pedigree: Racing Pundit Muda Masaru of Keiba Book gives Regaleira the highest “◎” rating, marking her as the top pick. Her sire, Suave Richard, belongs to the Heart’s Cry lineage, suggesting high suitability for Kyoto’s outer course.
Weekly Training: On November 5, she trained at Miho Wood Course. She recorded an overall time of 96.0 seconds, with a sharp final furlong in 11.2 seconds. In a paired workout, she tracked and finished alongside her partner, with the concise report stating: “Significant improvement with this workout.”
Previous Race Analysis (All Comers 1st): Despite a slightly slow start, she settled well in mid-to-rear position. She extended powerfully in the straight to pull away for a dominant victory. Jockey Keita Tosaki highly praised her finishing ability, commenting, “She’s easy to ride and has excellent late speed.”
Overall Analysis: This G1 winner enters the race in perfect condition after a commanding victory in her prep race. Her sharp training gallop and the expert’s top rating indicate very few weaknesses. She is undoubtedly a leading contender.
Stellenbosch
Weekly Training: On November 5, under jockey C. Lemaire, she worked at Ritto CW Course, clocking a final furlong of 12.0 seconds. She tracked Berbel Compass (older mare, 3 wins) by 0.3 seconds and finished 0.2 seconds ahead. The report noted: “Training progressing smoothly.”
Previous Race Analysis (Sapporo Kinen 15th): Settled in mid-outer, but lost ground rapidly from the 4th corner, resulting in a significant defeat. Jockey Kenichi Ikezoe commented, “She’s a high-class horse, so I can only attribute it to her mental state.”
Stable Comments: According to reports on November 5, the stable confirmed: “Condition is without issue.”
Overall Analysis: A G1 winner suffered an unexpected heavy defeat, making her recovery the primary focus. C. Lemaire riding her in training and the “smooth progression” report are positive signs. If her mental state and the track conditions align, it wouldn’t be surprising to see her unleash her full potential.
Erica Express
Weekly Training: On November 5, she worked solo and effortlessly up the Ritto坂路 (sloping track), recording 53.9 seconds overall with a final furlong of 12.4 seconds. The report stated: “Maintaining good spirits.”
Previous Race Analysis (Shuka Sho 2nd): Took the lead and dictated the pace but couldn’t quite hold on in the straight, finishing 2nd. Jockey Yutaka Take attributed the loss to her temperament, saying, “She was too keen in the mid-race.”
Stable Comments: Trainer Haruki Sugiyama noted her growth, stating, “She used to be a bit weak in her hindquarters, but that has solidified.” Furthermore, Izumitani emphasized her excellent condition: “She’s been training at the stable, and both her physical and mental aspects are superb. She’s improved since her last race.”
Overall Analysis: The key to her performance lies in her ability to settle. The stable has focused on mental care during her stay-at-home training, confirmed by her relaxed workout. If she can enter the race in the “better than last time” condition described by the stable, a G1 victory is within her grasp.
Coconut Brown
Weekly Training: On November 5, she completed a long gallop at Ritto CW Course, recording a final furlong of 11.4 seconds. She finished ahead of Tripolitania (older mare, 3 wins). The report: “Excellent readiness.”
Previous Race Analysis (Sapporo Kinen 2nd): Despite a slow start, she surged powerfully from the far outside to secure 2nd place. Race analysis indicated “the difference in inside/outside draws and racing position affected the outcome,” suggesting her performance was even better than the margin implied.
Stable Comments: Trainer Takaki Uemura expressed confidence, stating, “She’s been reset and is coming along nicely,” and “There’s nothing to say about her condition except it’s perfect.”
Overall Analysis: As indicated by the expert’s high “▲” rating, she is a top-class mare. The stable considers her occasionally high tension “within expectations,” and her training was flawless. Consistently performing at a high level, she is a strong contender here.
Paradise Reine
Evaluation & Pedigree: Rated “○” (second-highest) by Keiba Book, her sire is Kizuna, a bloodline that boasts the highest win and quinella rates on this course.
Weekly Training: On November 5, she ascended the Ritto坂路 effortlessly, clocking 54.9 seconds overall with a final furlong of 12.1 seconds. Her sharp late burst was notable, earning the high praise: “Full of vigor.”
Previous Race Analysis (Shuka Sho 3rd): Reserved her energy in the rear and extended strongly in the straight to secure 3rd place. Race analysis noted that “the positioning difference with the top two horses was significant,” suggesting she could have finished even higher with a different race flow.
Overall Analysis: With a high rating from experts, the strongest pedigree for this course, and a “full of vigor” training report, all positive factors align. Her 3-year-old weight advantage (54kg) is also significant, making her a prime candidate for victory.
Admire Matsuri
Weekly Training: On November 6, under jockey Ryusei Sakai, she worked at Ritto CW Course, recording an exceptional overall time of 79.9 seconds and a sharp final furlong of 11.6 seconds. The report: “Intensified training.”
Overall Analysis: Her previous race, with a +16kg weight gain, was clearly a prep run. The blistering time in her weekly training and the “intensified training” report unequivocally indicate a dramatic improvement in her condition.
Vermicelli
Evaluation & Pedigree: Her sire is Gold Ship, known for his strong affinity with this course. Her weekly training saw jockey Hayato Yoshida clock a final furlong of 11.7 seconds, with the report stating: “Improved reaction.”
Overall Analysis: Coming off a 3rd place finish in a G2, she carries strong momentum, backed by a favorable pedigree. Her improving training suggests she is a dark horse to watch.
Aurora X
Weekly Training: On November 9, she trained at Ritto坂路, effortlessly recording a final furlong of 12.7 seconds. The report noted: “Thorough work on the sloping track.”
Overall Analysis: Currently on a winning streak, she shows signs of reaching her peak. While her training was light, the question is whether the “sharp turn of foot” she displayed in her previous race will be effective on the G1 stage.
Kana Tape
Weekly Training: On November 6, she trained at Miho Wood Course, recording 66.0 seconds overall with an effortless final furlong of 11.7 seconds. The report: “Good form sustained.”
Overall Analysis: Her previous race suggested she could have finished higher with better handling. Her training indicates sustained good form, proving that at 6 years old, her power shows no signs of waning.
Kelly Fled Ask
Weekly Training: On November 6, under jockey Yasunari Iwata, she worked at Ritto CW Course. Driven strongly at the end, she recorded an excellent final furlong of 11.4 seconds. The report: “Coat gleams.”
Overall Analysis: Despite a heavy defeat in the Shuka Sho, her sharp late speed in weekly training is noteworthy. The high praise for her physical condition (“coat gleams”) suggests a significant turnaround could be on the cards.
Sapphira
Evaluation & Pedigree: Her sire is Heart’s Cry, which boasts the second-highest quinella rate on this course. Her weekly training saw jockey Junya Nishimura ride her effortlessly to a final furlong of 11.4 seconds. The report: “Sharp footwork.”
Overall Analysis: Her previous race can be disregarded due to unfavorable draw and race development. Combined with her strong pedigree and sharp training, the stable holds high expectations, making a significant rebound highly probable.
Shinryokuka
Weekly Training: On November 5, trainer Masahiro Takeuchi rode her himself at Miho Wood Course. Driven strongly, she recorded a final furlong of 11.7 seconds. The report: “Tracked and finished alongside, good.”
Overall Analysis: Her previous race was a commendable effort considering the weight carried. The stable explicitly states, “Her movement has stepped up a gear,” suggesting she may have reached peak form in her 5-year-old autumn campaign.
Sekito Bay East
Weekly Training: On November 5, under jockey Shun Hamanaka, she worked at Ritto CW Course. Driven to the maximum, she recorded an impressive final furlong of 11.1 seconds. The report: “Full of vigor.”
Overall Analysis: Her previous race was a clear prep run. The stunning time in her weekly training is a testament to her progress, and as the report “full of vigor” implies, her condition is rapidly improving.
Fair Erung
Pedigree: Her sire is Gold Ship, known for his strong affinity with this course. Her weekly training at Miho Wood Course saw her record a final furlong of 11.8 seconds. The report: “Ambitious training content.”
Overall Analysis: She has steadily improved, finishing 4th in her last G2. The stable has been working on her key issue of settling, and her “ambitious training” aims for a bold performance.
Bond Girl
Weekly Training: On November 6, under jockey Hideaki Miyagi, she worked at Miho Wood Course, recording a final furlong of 11.7 seconds. The report: “Showing improvement after a prep run.”
Overall Analysis: Her potential is top-class for her generation, but her previous race was inexplicably poor. As her training shows improvement, the key will be the enhancement in her condition since that last run.
Lilac
Weekly Training: On November 5, she worked at Miho Wood Course, recording an exceptionally fast overall time of 81.4 seconds and a final furlong of 11.3 seconds. The report: “Good extension in the straight.”
Overall Analysis: Despite being a 6-year-old, the stable unanimously declares her to be in “the best condition ever.” Her training performance was flawless, and on a stage the stable openly calls her “specialty,” a major upset could be in store.
Lavanda
Weekly Training: On November 6, she worked solo and effortlessly at Ritto CW Course, recording an astonishing overall time of 82.4 seconds and a final furlong of 11.1 seconds. The report: “Maintaining good spirits.”
Overall Analysis: Her dominant victory in the previous race announced her full arrival. Her jockey confidently states she “can compete in G1,” and with an effortless final furlong of 11.1 seconds, her condition is judged to be absolutely perfect.
Lance of Queen
Weekly Training: On November 6, she was driven strongly at Ritto CW Course but lagged behind her lower-class training partner. The report: “Delayed in pursuit.”
Overall Analysis: Based on her weekly training performance, there are significant concerns heading into a G1 race. The “delayed in pursuit” report indicates she is not in top form, making her chances look challenging against this caliber of competition.
最新レース予想
最新レース予想