[Updated: 2026-01-23 18:07:16] Revised by AI Assistant
Analysis by AI
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In-Depth Analysis: Pedigree, Training, and Stable Strategies for Promising Newcomers
- Key Takeaways for the November 23, 2025 JRA Newcomer Races
- Introduction: Strategic Significance of Late Autumn Newcomer Races in Tokyo and Kyoto
- Tokyo 5R 2-Year-Old Newcomer (Turf 2000m): Structural Analysis and Contender Breakdown
- Tokyo 4R 2-Year-Old Newcomer (Dirt 1600m): Pedigree Biases and Winning Strategies
- Kyoto 5R 2-Year-Old Newcomer (Turf 2000m): Trends and Strategies
- Kyoto 4R 2-Year-Old Newcomer (Dirt 1400m): Winning Strategies
- Conclusion: Key Races and Recommended Horses for November 23, 2025
Key Takeaways for the November 23, 2025 JRA Newcomer Races
- The JRA newcomer races on November 23, 2025, mark the crucial “Legendary Newcomer Race” season, offering a pivotal glimpse into next spring’s Classic contenders.
- In Tokyo 5R (Turf 2000m), Shonan Multi stands out as the top contender, showcasing exceptional training performance.
- For Tokyo 4R (Dirt 1600m), attention is drawn to the foreign-bred (Gai) Fulmine Blu, who recorded an astonishing time in training, boasting strong American bloodlines.
- In Kyoto 5R (Turf 2000m), Sky Splendor, by Saturnalia, exhibits a remarkable turn of foot.
- The 2025 pedigree landscape is shifting from the “Deep Impact era” to a highly competitive field, with sire lines like Kizuna, Epiphaneia, and prominent American stallions gaining significant traction.
Introduction: Strategic Significance of Late Autumn Newcomer Races in Tokyo and Kyoto
The “Legendary Newcomer Race” Season: Charting the Path to the Classics
On November 23, 2025, the Japan Racing Association (JRA) hosts critically important newcomer races at both Tokyo and Kyoto Racecourses, serving as key indicators for next spring’s highly anticipated Classic series. The Tokyo races held at this time of year, particularly over 2000m and 1800m on turf, have long been hailed as “Legendary Newcomer Races,” consistently producing numerous Derby and Oaks winners. This period often sees the emergence of exceptional talents, as young horses reach peak physical and mental development. With Tokyo Racecourse utilizing the C course and Kyoto Racecourse well into its meeting, understanding track conditions will be a vital factor in our predictions. This report focuses on four key newcomer races: Tokyo 5R (Turf 2000m), Tokyo 4R (Dirt 1600m), Kyoto 5R (Turf 2000m), and Kyoto 4R (Dirt 1400m). We will provide a multi-faceted analysis of the entrants’ pedigree, training, stable comments, and jockey engagements to offer precise prediction points.
2025 Pedigree Trends: The Shifting Landscape of Dominant Bloodlines and Emerging Sire Power
The 2025 two-year-old racing season has decisively transitioned from the “Deep Impact era” of singular dominance to a period of intense competition. Within the Sunday Silence sire line, progeny of Kizuna, Epiphaneia, and Suave Richard are rapidly expanding their influence. On the dirt, American-bred sires such as Nadal and Sinister Minister are demonstrating remarkable success, showcasing clear superiority on courses demanding immense power and speed. Deciphering the nuances of these evolving bloodlines will be key to successful predictions in today’s races.
Tokyo 5R 2-Year-Old Newcomer (Turf 2000m): Structural Analysis and Contender Breakdown
Course Characteristics and Race Dynamics
Tokyo’s Turf 2000m features a curve immediately after the start, generally favoring inside draws. However, in newcomer races, which often see slower paces, versatility and a powerful burst of speed in the long straight are crucial deciding factors. With only 11 horses, this small, elite field is likely to result in a straightforward test of ability with minimal interference. Assuming good turf conditions on the C course, both nimbleness and sustained effort will be required for victory.
Detailed Analysis and Assessment of Key Contenders
Shonan Multi (Colt 2 – Miho, Masahiro Otake Stable)
Expected Odds: 2.7 (1st Favorite)
Pedigree Analysis: Sire Greater London (Deep Impact line) x Dam’s Sire War Emblem (Mr. Prospector line). This combination seamlessly blends explosive acceleration with sustained speed, making it perfectly suited for Tokyo’s famously long straight.
Training Data: Recorded an impressive 11.4 seconds for the final furlong effortlessly in his November 19th Miho Woodchip (W) course final workout, unequivocally demonstrating superior cardio-pulmonary function and raw ability.
Stable Comment: The comment “still has some weaknesses” can be interpreted as a testament to his immense potential, showing such brilliant movement even in an unfinished state.
Lavinia Park (Colt 2 – Miho, Kiyoshi Hagiwara Stable)
Expected Odds: 4.4 (2nd Favorite)
Pedigree Analysis: Sire Harbinger x Dam’s Sire White Muzzle. This robust European pedigree suggests strong staying power and resilience in demanding races or on softer ground.
Training Data: Undertook practical training, working alongside promising newcomer Mickey Thousand on the Miho W course. Jockey Keita Tosaki riding to gauge his feel is a significant positive.
Stable Comment: A cautious “condition is set” indicates confidence in his preparation and fitness.
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Noble Savage (Colt 2 – Miho, Issei Mori Stable)
Expected Odds: 4.4 (3rd Favorite)
Pedigree Analysis: Sire Leontes x Dam’s Sire Manhattan Cafe. While his temperament might be challenging, his raw power and expansive stride – stemming from his magnificent physique – are perfectly suited for the Tokyo course.
Training Data: Showcased a performance comparable to a veteran horse in the 2-win class on the Miho Slopes. While he might be a slow starter, his sustained speed once he hits top gear is formidable.
Golden Dagger (Colt 2 – Miho, Eiji Nakadate Stable)
Expected Odds: 7.4 (4th Favorite)
Pedigree Analysis: Sire Fierement (stayer) x Dam’s Sire Rock of Gibraltar (miler). This hybrid pedigree combines stamina and speed, indicating strong adaptability for sustained speed over middle distances.
Training Data: Effortlessly caught and passed a veteran horse leading on the Miho W course, highlighting his readiness and smooth motion.
Meisho Jinrai (Colt 2 – Ritto, Ryo Takahashi Stable)
Expected Odds: 8.5 (5th Favorite)
Pedigree Analysis: Sire Indy Champ. Inherits his sire’s explosive acceleration, which will be a potent weapon if the pace is slow.
Training Data: Recorded an impressive 51.6 seconds on the Ritto Slopes, undoubtedly placing his leg power among the top contenders.
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Tokyo 5R Overall Assessment and Conclusion
Shonan Multi is our top pick, with his training performance standing a cut above the rest. His last furlong burst of 11.4 seconds will be the most formidable weapon on this stage. We rate Lavinia Park as a strong contender, followed by Noble Savage, Golden Dagger, and Meisho Jinrai.
Recommended Bets:
- Win: 11
- Exacta Box: 11 – 3, 8, 7, 6
- Trifecta (Box): 11 – 3, 8, 7, 6 (Key Horse 11)
Tokyo 4R 2-Year-Old Newcomer (Dirt 1600m): Pedigree Biases and Winning Strategies
The Dramatic Bias Introduced by a “Turf Start”
The Tokyo Dirt 1600m race starts on the turf course, creating a tendency for outside draws to be advantageous as they can run longer on the grass. Furthermore, this course overwhelmingly favors pedigrees with superior power and sustained speed, such as American-bred stallions and Mr. Prospector descendants.
Analysis of Key Contenders: Pedigree and Training
Mickey Thousand (Colt 2 – Miho, Kiyoshi Hagiwara Stable)
Expected Odds: 3.1 (1st Favorite)
Pedigree Analysis: Sire Mickey Isle x Dam’s Sire King Kamehameha. A versatile pedigree suited for both turf and dirt, possessing the power and stamina to cover a mile. Tokyo Dirt 1600m is an ideal condition.
Training Analysis: Showed a performance equal to or better than the promising Lavinia Park from Tokyo 5R. Expected to gain speed from the turf start and maintain it to the finish.
(Gai) Fulmine Blu (Colt 2 – Miho, Naoto Chiba Stable)
Expected Odds: 3.3 (2nd Favorite)
Pedigree Analysis: Sire Bolt d’Oro. A true American dirt pedigree, renowned for early maturity and power. Highly likely to show excellent adaptability to Japanese dirt conditions.
Training Analysis: Recorded an astonishing 11.4 seconds for the final furlong on the Miho W course. This burst of speed transcends typical dirt horse capabilities, and his physical development is also very advanced.
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(Gai) Deep Three (Colt 2 – Ritto, Minoru Oguri Stable)
Expected Odds: 3.7 (3rd Favorite)
Pedigree Analysis: Sire Maclean’s Music. Known for passing on excellent speed, a pedigree specifically tailored for front-running ability.
Training Analysis: Clocked impressive times on the Ritto Slopes, confirming his fundamental ability. A strong contender if he handles the long transport well.
Tokyo 4R Conclusion
Considering both training performance and pedigree suitability, we strongly recommend (Gai) Fulmine Blu as our top pick. His 11.4-second final furlong burst will be an overwhelming asset against his rivals. Mickey Thousand is our next best, followed closely by Deep Three. We anticipate these three horses to be the main contenders.
Kyoto 5R 2-Year-Old Newcomer (Turf 2000m): Trends and Strategies
Characteristics of Kyoto’s Outer Course 2000m
The Kyoto Turf Outer Course is frequently used for newcomer races with Classic aspirations. Key factors for success include acceleration prowess on the downhill section of the third turn and sustained top speed in the final straight.
Detailed Analysis of Key Contenders
Sky Splendor (Colt 2 – Ritto, Yasutoshi Ikee Stable)
Expected Odds: 2.0 (1st Favorite)
Pedigree Analysis: Sire Saturnalia x Dam’s Sire Symboli Kris S. This combination is a next-generation royal pedigree, blending explosive power with profound staying ability. He is well-equipped for the 2000m distance.
Training Analysis: Effortlessly recorded an outstanding 11.2 seconds for the final furlong on the Ritto CW course. The engagement of C. Demuro indicates strong intentions from the stable.
Stable Comment: Trainer Ikee emphasizes the horse’s physical development and excellent movement, exuding confidence in his preparation.
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Win Catherine (Filly 2 – Ritto, Shota Nishizono Stable)
Expected Odds: 4.3 (2nd Favorite)
Pedigree Analysis: Sire Benbatl, a globally renowned sire. The cross with Dam’s Sire Daiwa Major brings sustained speed, suggesting a strong ability to lead and hold her ground.
Training Analysis: Demonstrated strong competitive spirit in joint workouts, refusing to yield, indicating toughness in a race setting.
Kyoto 5R Conclusion
We believe Sky Splendor possesses superior talent. His 11.2-second final furlong in training is a clear indicator of Classic-level potential. We recommend him as the strong favorite. Our contenders against him are Win Catherine and Satono Agood, who has shown light, nimble movements.
Kyoto 4R 2-Year-Old Newcomer (Dirt 1400m): Winning Strategies
Course Characteristics and Pedigree Tendencies
Kyoto Dirt 1400m is a one-turn course with a turf start, generally favoring outside draws. Absolute speed is paramount on this stage, making it a strong arena for fast American-style dirt pedigrees.
Detailed Analysis of Key Contenders
Star Tune (Filly 2 – Ritto, Yutaka Okumura Stable)
Expected Odds: 3.4 (1st Favorite)
Pedigree Analysis: Sire Chrysoberyl, an undefeated dirt monster in Japan. His progeny inherit both power and speed, possessing extremely high dirt aptitude.
Training Analysis: Despite being a large horse, she clocked 11.5 seconds for the final furlong on the Ritto CW course. This shows extraordinary physical ability, indicating she is ready for a strong debut.
Schnell Ange (Filly 2 – Ritto, Ryo Terashima Stable)
Expected Odds: 3.6 (2nd Favorite)
Pedigree Analysis: Sire Kizuna is a versatile stallion excelling on both turf and dirt. His fillies, in particular, tend to mature quickly and often perform well in newcomer races.
Training Analysis: Finished even with a veteran horse in the 3-win class during a joint workout, leaving no doubt about her high ability. Jockey Yutaka Take’s skill further boosts her chances.
Kyoto 4R Conclusion
Star Tune and Schnell Ange appear set for a head-to-head battle. While Star Tune offers greater potential and scope, Schnell Ange boasts higher readiness and the undeniable appeal of her jockey. Here, we lean towards Star Tune’s raw potential.
Conclusion: Key Races and Recommended Horses for November 23, 2025
Today’s newcomer races feature a collection of highly promising horses with immense future potential across both Eastern and Western circuits. The turf middle-distance races, particularly Tokyo 5R and Kyoto 5R, are absolutely essential viewing for those looking ahead to next year’s Classics.
Tokyo 5R (Turf 2000m) Recommended Horse
| Mark | Gate No. | Horse Name | Evaluation Comment |
|---|---|---|---|
| ◎ | 11 | Shonan Multi | A shocking 11.4-second final furlong in training. Potentially the finest offspring of Greater London. |
