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【川崎競馬2025】11月19日徹底予測！データと期待値で狙う推奨馬6選川崎競馬2025年11月19日の注目馬6頭とデータ分析レポート

投稿者: ヤナシ社長(旧：生成系競馬予想)
ChatGPT Image 2025年11月19日 00_12_04

[Updated: 2026-01-23 17:56:04] Revised by AI Assistant

Analysis by AI

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Kawasaki Racecourse: Expert Predictions for November 19, 2025

This report delivers an in-depth analysis and strategic recommendations for six standout horses racing at Kawasaki Racecourse on November 19, 2025. Leveraging our proprietary prediction model, we pinpoint horses with high “expected value” by identifying discrepancies between market odds and projected win probabilities. Our comprehensive analysis integrates critical factors such as pedigree, training data, and stable comments to provide a logical foundation for your betting decisions.

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Key Insights & Strategic Summary

  • Unveiling 6 recommended horses based on cutting-edge data for Kawasaki Racecourse on November 19, 2025.
  • Horses are meticulously selected for high “expected value,” identified by the gap between market odds and our calculated win probabilities.
  • Spotlight races include the Rosita Kinen featuring Willshine and the final race with Stargrip.
  • Recommendations are backed by integrated analysis of bloodlines, training performance, and valuable stable commentary.

Kawasaki Racecourse: November 19, 2025 – Recommended Horse Portfolio Overview

RaceClassRecommended HorseProjected Win RateProjected Place RateProjected OddsInvestment Strategy
Kawasaki 02RTsubame ShoGrand Freude19%53%287%Speed Arbitrage
Kawasaki 03RShijukara ShoMeisho Matilda21%49%298%Temperament Risk Discount
Kawasaki 08RScotch ShoSaddle15%53%416%Recovery Signal Value
Kawasaki 09RMalt ShoGT Kaisoku24%59%307%Race Flow Dependent High Return
Kawasaki 11RRosita KinenWillshine17%61%388%Peak Performance
Kawasaki 12RBourbon ShoStargrip14%66%460%Class Potential Discrepancy

In-Depth Race Analysis & Horse Profiles

Kawasaki Race 2: Tsubame Sho (Dirt 900m) – Expert Analysis

The 900m dash at Kawasaki is a unique test of raw speed. With a long run to the first turn, acceleration out of the gate and sustained velocity down the backstretch are paramount. This race heavily favors horses with superior inherent sprinting ability and finely-tuned reactivity honed through intense training.

Horse to Watch: Grand Freude (Gate 8)

  • Pedigree Analysis: Grand Freude boasts a potent blend of world-class speed from sire Benbatl and the robust American-style dirt sprint aptitude inherited from his Storm Cat lineage. The 3×4 inbreeding to Storm Cat further reinforces early maturity and explosive power, crucial for success in 2-year-old races.
  • Training Data Insights: His final workout on November 14 was exceptional. He matched a higher-class horse effortlessly, clocking an impressive 50.9 seconds over 5 furlongs with a blistering 37.7 seconds for the final 3 furlongs. This performance strongly indicates he is operating at a level superior to the current C2 class.
    • 10/31 Kawasaki Training Track (Good): Rider up with Sound Bach (B3) 55.5 – 41.3 – N/A. Light but steady work.
    • 11/6 Kawasaki Training Track (Heavy): Rider up with Sound Bach (B3) 57.2 – 42.6 – N/A. Light but steady work.
    • 11/14 Kawasaki Training Track (Good): Rider up with One Target (B3) 68.7 – 50.9 – 37.7. Moved briskly and light on his feet.
  • Stable Commentary: Trainer Kawazu’s confidence is palpable, stating, “He has excellent speed, significantly improved his time last start, and is in great condition. I expect a lot from him over 900 meters again.” This confirms the stable’s belief in his winning prospects.
  • Rival Assessment & Relative Value: Competitors like Monza Second (Gate 1) and Hidegami Queen (Gate 3) have shown issues at the start, while transfer runner Bitter Melon (Gate 2) faces the challenge of adapting to a new environment. Grand Freude, by contrast, presents a compelling trifecta of strong pedigree, stellar training, and positive stable sentiment, making him our most reliable anchor horse.

Kawasaki Race 3: Shijukara Sho (Dirt 1500m) – Expert Breakdown

This 1500m race for 3-year-olds often comes down to a delicate balance between youthful temperament and physical development. With four turns to navigate, a horse’s tractability and ability to handle the corners are key determinants of success.

Horse to Watch: Meisho Matilda (Gate 3)

  • Pedigree & Potential: Sired by California Chrome, who has a proven record of high adaptability on Japanese regional dirt, and with Sunday Silence speed from her dam’s side, Meisho Matilda is ideally suited to a front-running style over 1500m.
  • Stable Commentary & Value Proposition: Trainer Murata Jun acknowledges, “She can be temperamental and unreliable, but if she gets a smooth run, she’s certainly in contention.” This very “temperamental” nature acts as a valuable market inefficiency, inflating her odds and boosting her expected value. Her underlying ability is undeniably competitive, and an inside draw from Gate 3 could significantly aid her mental stability.

Kawasaki Race 8: Scotch Sho (Dirt 1400m) – Spotlight

Horse to Watch: Saddle (Gate 7)

  • Pedigree & Recovery Trajectory: By Hearts Cry, known for producing late bloomers, Saddle possesses the latent stamina required for the demanding 1400m dirt trip. After a layoff due to a hoof injury (pododermatitis), his final workout saw him pushed hard, demonstrating a robust return to form. Trainer Hirata confirms, “He seems to have ability, and the class conditions are favorable.” The current underestimation due to his injury layoff presents an excellent buying opportunity, a clear signal of undervalued potential.

Kawasaki Race 9: Malt Sho (Dirt 1600m) – Strategic Insight

Horse to Watch: GT Kaisoku (Gate 1)

  • Pedigree & Race Strategy: The combination of sire Dream Valentino and dam’s sire Durandal suggests a running style focused on conserving energy mid-race before unleashing a devastating turn of foot in the stretch. Trainer Yamasaki Hiroshi noted, “Last race, he was boxed in on the inside and had nowhere to go. He gets left at the start but finishes strongly.” Despite drawing the innermost gate, the expertise of top jockey Sasagawa Tsubasa could allow him to save ground and unleash that explosive late kick, making him a high-reward prospect.

Kawasaki Race 11: Rosita Kinen (Dirt 2100m) – Feature Race Analysis

The Rosita Kinen is a premier national exchange graded race for 3-year-old fillies. The challenging 2100m distance at Kawasaki is a true test, demanding exceptional stamina and mental fortitude from the competitors.

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Feature Horse: Willshine (Gate 5)

  • Pedigree for Endurance: Willshine’s bloodline is perfectly suited for this arduous task. Sire Just a Way (a direct son of Hearts Cry) imparts superior stamina, beautifully complemented by the dirt aptitude from her dam’s sire, Speightstown. This unique combination provides the rare balance needed to excel on Kawasaki’s tough track over 2100m.
  • Exceptional Training Performance: Her final workout on November 15 was nothing short of spectacular. While working effortlessly, she unleashed an astounding 36.0 seconds for the last 2 furlongs. Such a display earned high praise for her “superb movement” and “return to peak form,” indicating she is in the best possible condition.
  • Stable Confidence: Trainer Sato Yutaka exudes confidence, stating, “With a consecutive long-distance race, my expectations are high.” Having proven her stamina in her previous start, the stable’s belief in her ability has only strengthened.
  • Rival Comparison: While Dona Ginny (Gate 1) and Blue Passion (Gate 6) are formidable contenders, Willshine holds an edge in both her recent training brilliance and proven distance suitability. With her innate stamina and superb current form, Willshine is poised to claim victory.

Kawasaki Race 12: Bourbon Sho (Dirt 1500m) – The Grand Finale

Final Race Star: Stargrip (Gate 14)

  • Pedigree & Comeback Potential: As a progeny of Asia Express, Stargrip possesses clear suitability for dirt mile races. Despite returning from a layoff due to “fetlock concerns,” her final workout showcased a sharp 37.8 seconds for the last 3 furlongs, betraying no signs of lingering injury. Trainer Tajima expresses absolute confidence in her ability, stating, “If she’s in C1 class, her power should be sufficient.” The decision to engage top jockey Sasagawa Tsubasa for her comeback run is a strong indicator of the stable’s winning intent. Her current undervaluation due to the injury layoff presents a prime opportunity for a high-return bet.

Conclusion & Recommended Betting Strategies for Kawasaki

Our strategic approach for today’s Kawasaki races revolves around three core principles designed to maximize your returns:

  1. Adjusted Aptitude Assessment (Races 2 & 9): Focus on Grand Freude and GT Kaisoku. These horses are poised to deliver performances exceeding their market valuations under specific race conditions, forming a solid foundation for reliable returns.
  2. Risk Repricing Opportunities (Races 3 & 8): Consider Meisho Matilda (due to her temperament) and Saddle (returning from injury). While negative information may have skewed their odds, we assess these risks as manageable, presenting valuable arbitrage opportunities.
  3. Peak Performance & Untapped Potential (Races 11 & 12): Back Willshine, who is in peak condition, and Stargrip, a horse with superior underlying ability. These two represent the pinnacle of expected value in their respective races. Their high projected place rates make them exceptionally logical choices as anchors for combination wagers.
ヤナシ社長(旧：生成系競馬予想)

ヤナシ社長(旧：生成系競馬予想)

競馬予想家 (経験20年)

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データ関連企業の社長であり、学生時代にはアルゴリズムコンテストで世界3位に入賞したAI技術者。20年以上にわたり統計解析を競馬予想に応用してきた競馬予測家でもあります。生成系AIを駆使した客観的で革新的な競馬予想を提供し、「生成AI競走馬評価」などのコンテンツを通じて、競馬をより深く楽しめるようサポートしています。

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