Momiji Stakes 2025 Predictions: Is Hishi Aman a Sure Bet? Data-Driven Dark Horses and Key Points

A deep-dive prediction for the Momiji Stakes, a 3-win class race at Tokyo Racecourse on November 1, 2025. Centered on the talented Hishi Aman, we thoroughly analyze contenders from favorites to dark horses. Using objective data like course traits, workout reports, and stable comments, we uncover the race’s core dynamics and pinpoint potential surprise winners.

Key Takeaways

• The undisputed favorite is the 3-year-old Hishi Aman, who dominates in data, training, and stable evaluation.
• The race is on the Tokyo Turf 1600m, which tends to be slow-paced. Data suggests that front-runners and pace-setters have an advantage.
• Top challengers include Kanikyuru, aiming for a comeback in her class, and Cerviatt, expected to rebound with star jockey C. Lemaire.
• The key to the race’s development is Power Hall, who is expected to be the sole front-runner. The race’s pace will largely depend on him.
• The high-level tactical battle between top jockeys like D. Lane, C. Lemaire, and Keita Tosaki is another highlight.

Momiji Stakes 2025 – Race Outlook & Tokyo Turf 1600m Analysis

To build a solid prediction, it’s essential to first grasp the basic race information and the characteristics of the course. Here, we’ll delve into the Momiji Stakes overview and the strategy for conquering the Tokyo Turf 1600m, a stage for many legendary races.

Race Overview

Race NameMomiji Stakes

Date & TimeSat, Nov 1, 2025, 14:50 JST

RacecourseTokyo Racecourse (Day 10, Race 10)

ConditionsTurf 1600m (Left-handed, B-Course)

Class3-y-o & up, 3 Wins Class (Mixed, Special Weight)

Entrants12

1st Prize¥18,400,000

Track ConditionWeather: Rain, Track: Good

The B-Course will be in use at Tokyo Racecourse from this week. The rail movement has covered most of the worn areas on the inside, so the race is expected to be held in generally good conditions.

Tokyo Turf 1600m Deep Dive: A Tactical Blueprint for Victory

The Tokyo Turf 1600m is known as the championship mile course in Japanese horse racing, hosting G1 races like the Yasuda Kinen and Victoria Mile. Understanding its characteristics is key to improving prediction accuracy.

• Course Layout: The starting gate is located at the far end of the backstretch, leading into a long straight of about 542m to 600m before the first turn. This tends to reduce intense early positioning battles, making it a fair course with little advantage based on gate position. The final stretch, the deciding part of the race, is a long 525.9m and features a tough uphill climb with an elevation change of 2.1m to 2.7m just before the finish line. It’s a course that demands not just speed, but also stamina and endurance.
• Pace Tendency: Analysis of past races shows that a remarkable 53% unfold at a “slow pace,” with high-paced races being rare. This is likely due to the long initial straight, which eases the fight for the lead and allows the pace to settle. This race is also highly likely to become a test of closing speed from a slow pace.
• Advantaged Running Styles: While the long straight might seem to favor closers and stretch-runners, data analysis shows that “front-runners” and “pace-setters” actually have a better record. In a slow pace, horses at the front can conserve energy and set themselves up for a burst of speed in the final stretch. Coming from behind is difficult without significant help from the race’s flow.
• Gate Position Advantage: The course layout results in minimal advantage from gate position. While data shows slightly higher win rates for gates 1, 7, and 8, the difference is not decisive. It’s considered a fair track where horses can perform to their ability from any gate.

The tactical blueprint for victory derived from this analysis is clear. In a likely slow-paced race, the key to winning the Tokyo mile is to save energy on the inside track near the front and then unleash a powerful closing kick in the final stretch.

Contender Analysis: The Evidence Behind Their Strength

With each stable eyeing victory, which horse does the data point to as the main contender? We’ll analyze the abilities and conditions of the top horses from multiple angles, including expert picks, stable comments, and the latest workout reports.

The Unshakable Favorite – Hishi Aman

In this field, the central figure is undoubtedly the 3-year-old Hishi Aman. Multiple data points suggest his exceptional ability.

• Overwhelming Expert Endorsement: He has received the top mark “◎ (Favorite)” from both computer predictions and newspaper experts. Both objective data and experienced trackmen rate his ability at the highest level.
• Ridden by Star Jockey D. Lane: His jockey is the world-class Damian Lane, who boasts an incredible 27.4% win rate at the Tokyo course.
• Unwavering Stable Confidence: Trainer Noriyuki Hori commented, “This is just a stepping stone,” showing strong confidence and looking ahead to future races. He is reported to be in excellent physical and mental condition after a short break.
• Impressive Workout: In his final workout, he trained alongside G1 winner Tastiera, earning top praise like “amazing power and presence,” indicating he is in peak condition.
• Previous Race Performance: He won his last race, the Kisarazu Tokubetsu, with a brilliant display of closing speed, proving he has the ability to compete at a higher class.

His sire, Maurice, was exceptionally strong at the Tokyo mile. With the mile aptitude likely inherited from his father, the stable’s strong confidence, and his perfect preparation, all data points to a victory for Hishi Aman.

Top Challengers Aiming for an Upset – Kanikyuru & Cerviatt

Two talented horses are ready to challenge Hishi Aman.

Kanikyuru

A 4-year-old filly aiming for a comeback after a graded stakes challenge. She finished 8th in her last race, the Fuchu Himba Stakes, but now returns to her own class and looks to show her true potential on her favored Tokyo course.

• Ridden by Keita Tosaki: He excels at the Tokyo Turf 1600m, with a high and stable in-the-money rate of 36.2%.
• Perfect Condition: Her final workout was highly rated as “perfectly prepared.” The stable also emphasized the effects of her recovery, stating, “She is ready.”
• Stable’s Strategy: Trainer Kikuzawa has a clear plan: “Returning to her class and a shorter distance are positives. The ideal scenario is to get a good position on the inside.”

Cerviatt

A 3-year-old filly who has competed in G1 races like the Oka Sho and NHK Mile Cup. She suffered a major defeat, finishing 13th in the Rose Stakes, but it’s too early to write her off.

• Ridden by C. Lemaire: A master jockey who knows the Tokyo Turf 1600m inside and out. His in-the-money rate on this course is an overwhelming 63.1%.
• Stable’s Expectations: Trainer Takano is hopeful, stating, “She’s improving as it gets cooler. We’re looking for a comeback on a course where she has performed well in a G1.”
• The Biggest Mystery and Potential: After her last race, Lemaire was perplexed, saying, “I don’t know what happened.” Yet, the stable now says she is “improving.” This contradiction is both her biggest risk and her greatest appeal. If she has fully recovered, a brilliant comeback under the master jockey is entirely possible.

Rising 3-Year-Olds and Ominous Presences

• Ask Sexy More: Another 3-year-old highly rated by experts. Trainer Yuichi Fukunaga’s comment, “She has the talent to be competitive right away,” speaks to her high potential. She won her last race with a strong closing kick from a slow pace, demonstrating her suitability for this race.
• Water Gerbera: She ran a strong race to finish 3rd last time despite being forced to run on the poor inner part of the track. Her performance was better than her finishing position suggests. She showed “sharp leg action” in her workout and is said to be in even better condition.
• Nishino Raikou: Although his recent results have been poor, he has received multiple “▲ (contender)” marks from experts. Based on the incredible late speed he showed at Tokyo three races ago, he must be watched closely on his return to his favored course.

Contender Comparison Chart

Final Workout Diagnosis: Gauging the Stables’ Intentions

The final workout just before the race is one of the most important indicators of a horse’s condition. Here, we scrutinize the training of all entrants to diagnose their readiness and the stable’s level of commitment.

Top-Rated Horses

• Hishi Aman (Rating: A+): Highly praised for “showing great spirit” on the Miho woodchip course. He received rave reviews like “amazing power and presence, with a strong physique and great spirit,” indicating he is in perfect shape.
• Kanikyuru (Rating: A): Rated as “perfectly prepared” on the Miho woodchip course. Comments like “powerful as ever with a low center of gravity, spirited and ready to go” confirm she is also in top condition.
• Water Gerbera (Rating: A): Praised for “sharp leg action” on the Ritto hill course. With comments like “she was good last time, but even better now,” she is likely to enter the race in better condition than her previous start.

Other Horses in Good Form

• Power Hall (Rating: B+): Rated as “well-prepared.” The analysis notes, “As is typical for this stable, he has been worked hard and his times are excellent.” Thorough training is a positive sign for a front-runner.
• Nishino Raikou (Rating: B): Praised for “light movement.” His workout suggests he may be shaking off his recent slump and is showing signs of a comeback.
• Cerviatt (Rating: B+): Rated as “training smoothly.” While not a dramatic improvement, the comment “passable” indicates a steady preparation process after a poor performance.

Final Workout Evaluation Summary

Longshot Candidates and Dark Horses to Watch

While the top favorites form a strong lineup, the presence of dark horses with upset potential makes the race exciting. Here are the longshot candidates and the key horse to watch, identified from the data.

Experts’ Longshot Picks

• Sam Hunter: Marked as a “longshot” by experts. The stable hopes for a race where he isn’t boxed in. The key will be how long he can hold on if he gets to run at his own pace.
• Cycnus: Also rated as a “longshot.” The stable believes a rain-affected track would be a plus, so he could be a contender depending on the track conditions on race day.

The Key Horse to Watch: Power Hall

The horse most likely to influence the race’s outcome is Power Hall, from gate 7. AI pace predictions also list him as the likely front-runner, with a note to “watch for a solo lead.”

As mentioned, this course tends to have a slow pace, favoring front-runners. If Power Hall can easily take the lead and dictate his own pace, he won’t be easy to catch in the final stretch. Furthermore, he will be wearing blinkers for the first time, which is expected to improve his focus.

If other horses let Power Hall get away easily, he could take full advantage of the slow pace and run away with the race. It’s no exaggeration to say that Power Hall’s performance will determine the entire flow of the race.

Conclusion: Key Points and Final Verdict for Momiji Stakes 2025

We have analyzed the 2025 Momiji Stakes from multiple perspectives. Finally, let’s summarize the key points for your prediction.

• The Undisputed Favorite: Hishi Aman dominates in every aspect—training, stable, jockey, and ratings—and should be the cornerstone of your bets.
• High-Risk, High-Reward Appeal: Cerviatt combines significant concerns with the potential for a huge upset, making her an essential consideration for those seeking value.
• The Pace-Setter: The performance of Power Hall, expected to lead alone with first-time blinkers, will be a crucial factor in the race’s outcome.
• Clash of Star Jockeys: Pay close attention to the timing of moves from top jockeys like D. Lane (Hishi Aman), C. Lemaire (Cerviatt), and Keita Tosaki (Kanikyuru).

By integrating all this data and comprehensively judging each horse’s ability, condition, and potential race flow advantages, we arrive at our final conclusion. For our specific picks and betting strategy, please follow the link below. We hope you’ll use our experts’ final decisions to enhance your betting strategy.

See the Final Verdict

View Expert’s Final Picks & Bets for Momiji Stakes 2025