Mirco Demuro: The Truth Behind a 6-Year Struggle? An In-Depth Analysis of His Decline and the “Invisible Hand”

In recent years, a candid confession from top jockey Mirco Demuro sent shockwaves through the Japanese horse racing world. As one of the first foreign jockeys to obtain a full-year license from the JRA and reach its pinnacle, why did he experience a career decline and move to the United States? This article delves into the truth behind his confession, analyzing his six-year struggle and the structural problems within Japanese horse racing through objective data and symbolic events.

（From：https://tospo-keiba.jp/breaking_news/64394）

Key Takeaways from This Article

• Jockey Mirco Demuro shocked the racing world by confessing his recent poor performance and the accompanying mental anguish.
• Since 2019, a significant gap emerged between his results and those of his rival, C. Lemaire, marking a clear downward trajectory in his career.
• His riding style, once praised as “genius inspiration,” was criticized as “reckless” as his performance declined, trapping him in a negative spiral.
• The influence of the jockey agent system and powerful owner syndicates, symbolized by his removal as the main rider for Saturnalia, cast a shadow over his career.
• His performance has been recovering since moving to the United States, suggesting that a mismatch with the Japanese racing system may have been a contributing factor to his slump.

Table of Contents

1. Chapter 1: The Predator at the Top (2015–2018): A Baseline of Brilliance
   1. Statistical Dominance
   2. A Celebrated Riding Style
2. Chapter 2: The Great Divergence (2019–2024): A Statistical Tale of Two Jockeys
3. Chapter 3: Anatomy of Criticism: Style, Starts, and Mental Pressure
   1. The Label of a “Bad Start”
   2. The Double-Edged Sword of the “Makuri”
   3. Scapegoating and Mental Exhaustion
4. Chapter 4: The Invisible Hand: Agents, Alliances, and the Saturnalia Affair
   1. The Power of Jockey Agents
   2. Case Study: Saturnalia’s “Heartbreak”
5. Chapter 5: The American Reset: An Escape to a Different Game
   1. Reasons for Leaving Japan
   2. A System Suited to His Style
   3. Proving Talent Through Performance
   4. Regained Mental Peace
6. Conclusion: A Legacy in Limbo and the Verdict of the Fans

Chapter 1: The Predator at the Top (2015–2018): A Baseline of Brilliance

To understand Demuro’s recent struggles, one must first establish the sheer brilliance he displayed at his career’s peak. His performance and riding style during this period serve as the “before” picture—an absolute baseline for analysis that creates a stark contrast with his later decline.

Statistical Dominance

Upon obtaining his full-year JRA license in 2015, Demuro immediately unleashed his talent. In his first year, he partnered with Duramente to win the Satsuki Sho and Japanese Derby double, a feat that earned him the JRA Award for leading money-winning jockey. His momentum was unstoppable. At what could be called the zenith of his career in 2017, he recorded 171 wins for the year. The quality of these wins was remarkable: an astonishing win rate of 25.7% and an in-the-money rate (top three finish) of 53.1%, earning him the JRA Award for highest win percentage. He maintained this high level in 2018 with 153 wins and a 23.9% win rate, establishing an era of “two powers” alongside Christophe Lemaire, dominating Japanese racing. During this time, his clutch performance on the big stage was also notable, having won the Derby twice with Neo Universe (2003) and Duramente (2015).

A Celebrated Riding Style

During this golden era, his riding style was lauded as “genius inspiration.” In particular, his bold mid-race surge from the back, known as “makuri,” became his trademark, captivating fans as an unconventional surprise tactic. International racing media also highly praised his riding. His victories aboard Victoire Pisa in the Arima Kinen and the Dubai World Cup are legendary testaments to his “fearless audacity” and “big-race pragmatism.” In those races, when he judged the pace to be slow, he ignored conventional wisdom, moved his horse early, and created his own race flow to seize victory. This “American style,” which he says he developed admiring the legendary American jockey Jerry Bailey, is characterized by a focus on rhythm and balance with the horse and the decisiveness to act without hesitation at critical moments.

This glorious success, however, contained the seeds of future conflict. The peak of Demuro’s career was supported by an intuitive, high-risk riding style. This style only works with the jockey’s absolute confidence and a horse capable of meeting those demands. While it produced spectacular victories, the tactic was inherently unstable and vulnerable, difficult to correct once things started to go wrong. The very style praised as “genius” when it produced wins would later be condemned as “reckless” when his results began to decline. Its evaluation was inextricably linked to his win rate.

Chapter 2: The Great Divergence (2019–2024): A Statistical Tale of Two Jockeys

From 2019 onwards, Demuro’s career began a clear downward curve. To objectively demonstrate the severity of this change, we will directly compare his annual results with those of his one and only rival who obtained a full-year JRA license under the exact same conditions: Christophe Lemaire. This data serves as irrefutable evidence of the “six-year struggle” analyzed in this report.

Note: Data compiled from public sources such as netkeiba.com. 2024 figures are as of the time of this report’s creation.

The reality presented by this table is brutally clear. A phenomenon one might call “The Great Divergence” occurred in their career paths. While Lemaire remained a regular at the JRA Awards for most wins and leading money-winner, maintaining a phenomenal average win rate of around 25%, Demuro’s performance deteriorated as if rolling down a hill. In 2019, he still maintained a top-class win rate of 15.8%, but it dropped to 12.0% the following year. After a brief recovery in 2021, his win rate fell to single digits at 7.8% in 2023, and finally sank to an unimaginable 5.1% in 2024. In every major metric—wins, quinella rate, and trifecta rate—his performance consistently declined. This statistical data shows that his “six years of patience” was not just subjective suffering but a harsh reality backed by objective numbers. The question is to uncover the factors that caused such a dramatic divergence.

Chapter 3: Anatomy of Criticism: Style, Starts, and Mental Pressure

In parallel with his declining performance, the perception of Demuro’s once-praised riding style completely reversed, making him a target of harsh criticism. This barrage of criticism became the direct cause of the mental exhaustion he confessed to.

The Label of a “Bad Start”

As Demuro himself stated, “I was honestly hurt by the constant criticism, like ‘his start wasn’t good.'” His starting technique was frequently questioned. Although the JRA does not publish specific rankings comparing the slow-start rates of all jockeys, the perception that “Demuro breaks slowly” became a powerful narrative—a label—that took hold among racing fans and the media. In modern horse racing, where early race positioning can significantly impact the outcome, it is easy to imagine how this negative image gradually eroded the trust of owners and trainers.

The Double-Edged Sword of the “Makuri”

As his results declined, his signature “makuri” also saw its evaluation flip 180 degrees. The bold mid-race move, once considered a stroke of genius, was increasingly condemned as a “reckless gamble” or a “riding error.” A symbolic example is the scathing criticism from a fan about his ride in the Oaks one year, calling it a “mysterious, half-baked surge.” What was once seen as fearless improvisation was now viewed as unplanned, self-indulgent riding when it failed to produce results. His greatest weapon had transformed into his greatest weakness.

Scapegoating and Mental Exhaustion

The core of Demuro’s confession lies in the mental anguish caused by this relentless criticism. His words, “I was exhausted by people constantly saying things like ‘he wasn’t trying until the end,'” reveal his suffering as a scapegoat forced to bear the full responsibility for defeat. This situation created a classic negative spiral: poor performance invited criticism, which eroded his confidence, and riding without confidence led to further poor performance. Trapped in this cycle, he confessed to feeling like he was in a tunnel with no exit, saying, “For these six years, I’ve just been falling.”

Underlying this phenomenon was a fundamental clash between Demuro’s intuitive, emotion-driven “American style” and the data-heavy, risk-averse approach favored by modern Japanese racing, especially top-tier stables. In the Japanese racing world, meticulous pre-race strategy and the faithful execution of a trainer’s instructions are highly valued. Demuro, however, has publicly stated that he “rides with the horse’s feelings first,” more so than stopwatch figures, which could sometimes create friction with a stable’s plans. Major organizations like Northern Farm prefer a highly systematic approach and favor predictable jockeys who can execute a plan precisely. His improvisational riding, typified by the “makuri,” may have been seen as a liability by major stakeholders who wanted to minimize variables (risks). Therefore, his decline was not just a loss of form but the result of a deepening incompatibility between his fundamental riding philosophy and the ethos of the mainstream powers in Japanese racing. As they weakened their support for him, his opportunities to ride quality horses diminished, further decreasing the probability of his high-risk style succeeding.

Chapter 4: The Invisible Hand: Agents, Alliances, and the Saturnalia Affair

Demuro’s decline cannot be dismissed as a mere individual slump. Behind it lay a powerful and opaque structure within the JRA: an “invisible hand.” The agent system, which dictates a jockey’s career, and the immense influence of certain owner groups, significantly swayed his fate.

The Power of Jockey Agents

In the JRA, “riding request mediators,” commonly known as “jockey agents,” are not just schedule managers. They are “power brokers” who negotiate with owners and trainers for riding opportunities on top horses, and their connections and influence are powerful enough to define a jockey’s career. The system is controversial because many influential agents also work as journalists for racing newspapers. This creates information asymmetry and raises concerns about potential conflicts of interest from a fairness perspective. Without the backing of a powerful agent, even the most talented jockey will struggle to get rides on top-class horses.

Case Study: Saturnalia’s “Heartbreak”

This structural dynamic manifested most cruelly in the replacement of the main jockey for the champion horse Saturnalia. This incident is a microcosm of the difficulties Demuro faced.

1. A Developer’s Contribution: Demuro identified Saturnalia’s talent before his debut and guided him to three consecutive victories, including the G1 Hopeful Stakes. He built a strong bond with the horse and believed in his future more than anyone.
2. The Sudden Switch: However, just before the classic season, the horse’s owner, Carrot Club (a club corporation affiliated with Northern Farm), announced that the main jockey would be switched from Demuro to Christophe Lemaire. The official reason given was to accommodate Demuro’s commitment to another of his regular rides, Admire Mars.
3. The Underlying Dynamics: This official reason was seen as a pretext by many in the racing world. Lemaire was contracted to the most influential agent in racing and was the de facto number one jockey for the Northern Farm conglomerate. The switch was a strategic decision by the stable to entrust their best horse to their most trusted jockey for the most important classic races, and it was a cold, public notice that Demuro’s ranking had fallen.
4. The “Heartbreaking” Blow: Ultimately, Lemaire guided Saturnalia to victory in the Satsuki Sho. Ironically, Lemaire was suspended for the subsequent Japanese Derby, and Saturnalia, with a substitute jockey, was defeated. For Demuro, who had said he was “looking forward to the day we could team up again,” this series of events meant more than just losing a top horse. It was a deep blow to his pride and a painful realization that he had lost control of his own career—a truly “heartbreaking” event.

The Saturnalia affair highlights how the Japanese jockey agent system functions as an engine that amplifies career momentum. For a jockey on the rise like Lemaire, the best riding opportunities are preferentially gathered, creating a “virtuous cycle” where success breeds more success. Conversely, for a jockey in a slump like Demuro, top mounts are systematically redirected to other jockeys, accelerating a “vicious cycle” that is nearly impossible to escape. The anecdote that Demuro’s own agent at the time warned him, “If you go to America now, you’ll lose even the few jobs you have left,” supports the fact that quality horses were no longer coming his way. The agent system is not a neutral mediator; it actively forms and solidifies the hierarchy among jockeys. It protects those at the top and mercilessly strips opportunities from those who stumble. In this system, regaining lost trust and momentum is a monumental task.

Chapter 5: The American Reset: An Escape to a Different Game

Cornered, Demuro’s move to California was not just a career change but a necessary “escape” to seek mental and professional regeneration.

Reasons for Leaving Japan

His motivation is clearly articulated in his own words: “In Japan, I couldn’t get as many rides as before, and I was tired of a situation where my efforts didn’t lead to results.” He felt trapped in a “Catch-22”: he couldn’t get good rides because of his low win rate, but he couldn’t improve his win rate without good rides. His cry, “How am I supposed to raise my win rate?” illustrates his desire to escape this desperate situation.

A System Suited to His Style

In America, Demuro found an environment where his work ethic is rewarded. He finds joy in riding many horses in morning training, an opportunity he rarely had in his later years in Japan, which has been a great help in managing his weight and, most importantly, reconnecting with the sport itself. Furthermore, the often fast-paced nature of American races may have a higher affinity with his intuitive and aggressive riding philosophy.

Proving Talent Through Performance

His performance in America has been a remarkable comeback, as if his recent slump in the JRA never happened. In a short period since his move, he has achieved 10 wins from 99 starts, with a win rate of 10.1% and an in-the-money rate of 39.4%. These figures far surpass his 2024 JRA performance. He has already won a graded stakes race, the G2 Surfer Girl Stakes, clearly proving that his exceptional skills were never lost.

Regained Mental Peace

Regarding his life in America, he says, “I just want to enjoy life,” and “I don’t want to push myself into a corner anymore.” This move was a mental health reset as much as a career reset. He is rediscovering the joy of riding, his “only hobby” that he was once so passionate about, in a foreign land.

Conclusion: A Legacy in Limbo and the Verdict of the Fans

Mirco Demuro’s six-year struggle cannot be attributed to a single cause. It was a “perfect storm” of intertwined factors: a high-risk riding style that became a liability during a slump, a loss of confidence under the harsh scrutiny of media and fans, and above all, the structural dynamics of the Japanese racing world. The powerful agent system and the rigid hierarchy formed by giant owner syndicates acted as a strong undercurrent that mercilessly dragged down a jockey who went against the flow, making his comeback nearly impossible.

Judging by online reactions, while media coverage tends to be sympathetic to his plight, critical fan voices regarding his rides in specific races persist. Among knowledgeable fans, opinions are likely divided. Some may see a jockey who failed to adapt his style to a changing environment. However, based on the evidence presented in this report, a deeper, more nuanced view is possible: that he was a world-class talent ultimately overwhelmed by a system that demands conformity and offers little support to those who fall from the top tier.

Demuro himself says he is undecided about returning to Japan. His success in America has re-validated his talent, but his heart and career history lie in Japan. His legacy is now suspended between the heartbreak of the past six years and the possibility of a new beginning. And the racing world is left with a question: was one of its most exciting talents a victim of his own flaws, or a victim of a system that has no place for a maverick?