In-depth predictions for the 28th Edelweiss Sho (Jpn3) at Mombetsu Racecourse on October 30, 2025. The undefeated local star Ryuno Flight faces challengers from the JRA, including Apatite Tesoro, in this premier showdown for 2-year-old fillies. We analyze the unique Mombetsu dirt 1200m course, past data trends, and all 11 entrants to forecast the future queen of the dirt.
Key Points of This Article
- The star is the monster filly Ryuno Flight, undefeated in three starts at her home track of Mombetsu.
- The main challenger is JRA’s Apatite Tesoro, but her unfavorable inside draw is a major concern based on historical data.
- The race is on the Mombetsu dirt 1200m, a unique track with deep sand and a long straight, which tends to favor local horses.
- Past data shows that outside gates (6 through 8) have a significant performance advantage.
- This is a race known for upsets and high payouts; watch out for dark horses.
Mombetsu Dirt 1200m: A Deep Dive into a Unique Course
To predict the Edelweiss Sho, understanding the Mombetsu Racecourse’s dirt 1200m track is arguably more critical than any other factor. Its unique characteristics, vastly different from the tracks JRA horses are accustomed to, have often led to surprising results.
The “Deep Sand” Demanding Power
The most defining feature of Mombetsu is its deep sand. While typical JRA and other regional dirt tracks have a sand depth of 8-10cm, Mombetsu uses sea sand with a depth of about 12cm. This deep surface places a significant burden on a horse’s legs with every stride, demanding immense power and stamina. It’s difficult to win on speed alone; sustained strength to the finish line is essential. This gives a major advantage to local Hokkaido horses who train and race on this special surface regularly.
The “Long Straight” Allowing for Closers
The home straight on Mombetsu’s outer course is 330m, one of the longest among regional racecourses in Japan. Unlike smaller tracks where front-runners often hold their lead, this long straight gives horses running from behind a real chance to catch up. Horses that set a fast early pace frequently run out of stamina before the finish. Conversely, closers who conserve energy during the race can unleash a powerful late kick in the straight.
Decoding the Winning Formula: Past Trends
Analyzing the race results from the past 10 years reveals several clear trends in the Edelweiss Sho. This data is a crucial guide for assessing the relative strengths of these inexperienced 2-year-old fillies.
The Hokkaido Advantage and the “Outside Gate” Rule
The most striking trend is the dominance of local Hokkaido-based horses. In the last 10 years, they have won 7 times compared to the JRA’s 3 wins, and they also overwhelmingly occupy the top three finishing positions. This clearly reflects the difference in adaptability to Mombetsu’s unique course. Furthermore, gate position shows a very strong bias. Data from the last decade indicates that horses in the “outside gates” (6 through 8) have achieved phenomenal results. Gate 6, in particular, boasts an incredible 50.0% in-the-money rate. In contrast, gate 4 has never produced a top-three finisher, and inside gates like 1 and 2 also tend to struggle.
A Race Ripe for Upsets! The Rise of High-Priced Dark Horses
The Edelweiss Sho is also known as a “graded race for 2-year-olds that produces upsets.” In 9 of the last 10 years, the trifecta payout has exceeded ¥10,000, with a massive ¥310,000 payout in 2014. The reason for these upsets is that popular JRA horses often fail to perform to their full potential due to the course characteristics and gate bias. Meanwhile, local horses with high course suitability or dark horses with favorable outside draws often outperform their odds and finish in the top spots.
Full Field Analysis: Assessing the Contenders
This year’s field presents an interesting dynamic, with the absolute favorite, Ryuno Flight, being challenged by a diverse group of JRA contenders and talented local Hokkaido horses. Here is a detailed analysis of all 11 entrants.
| Post | Horse Name | Jockey | Stable (Affiliation) | Est. Odds | Brief Comment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Taisei Flessa | Arata Saito | Makoto Saito (JRA) | 31.0 | G3 experience, dirt suitability is key. |
| 2 | Apatite Tesoro | Hayato Yoshida | Yoshihiro Hatakeyama (JRA) | 5.2 | Top JRA contender, but worst possible gate. |
| 3 | Big Karen Ruf | Shishio Ishikawa | Noboru Yonekawa (Hokkaido) | 127.4 | JRA turf OP winner, temperament is a concern. |
| 4 | Kaishin Pagent | Masaaki Kuwamura | Hideki Kakugawa (Hokkaido) | 25.1 | Strong finisher, but recent form is poor. |
| 5 | Ayasan Joliene | Yoichi Ando | Fuyuki Igarashi (Hokkaido) | 400.6 | Faces a tough challenge in this stronger field. |
| 6 | Ryuno Flight | Fuma Ono | Ryuichi Yamaguchi (Hokkaido) | 1.3 | The overwhelming favorite, an unbeaten local monster. |
| 7 | Tokai Macherie | Katsuma Sameshima | Daisuke Takayanagi (JRA) | 19.5 | Unknown potential, could surprise if she handles dirt. |
| 8 | Misty Rise | Ryu Abe | Hideki Kakugawa (Hokkaido) | 9.6 | Best chance to upset Ryuno Flight. |
| 9 | Emtirio | Toshiya Yamamoto | Hideki Kakugawa (Hokkaido) | 66.5 | Unbeaten on Mombetsu dirt, a course specialist. |
| 10 | Takeno Lulu | Yuki Miyauchi | Hiroto Kawashima (Hokkaido) | 45.0 | Also unbeaten, a threat from a great gate. |
| 11 | Miss Valencia | Genta Ochiai | Ryo Takei (JRA) | 51.2 | First dirt race, equipment change could spark improvement. |
The Main Contender – The Unbeaten Local Monster
6. Ryuno Flight: The estimated odds of 1.3 speak volumes about this horse’s reputation. With three wins from three starts, all of them dominant victories, she is truly a “monster of her generation.” She won the Lily Cup and Fleur Cup, two graded stakes for 2-year-olds at Mombetsu, by decisive margins. She has already proven a significant ability gap between herself and her peers, and her connections are brimming with confidence. There are no apparent weaknesses, and the key to the race will be how the other horses challenge her.
JRA Challengers – Talent and Trials
2. Apatite Tesoro: The leading contender from the JRA and Ryuno Flight’s biggest rival. She proved her dirt aptitude with a commanding win in her last start, a maiden race after switching to dirt. However, her biggest concern is drawing the statistically disastrous inside gate 2. Her true ability will be tested as she faces the kickback from Mombetsu’s deep sand for the first time and tries to navigate the race smoothly.
8. Misty Rise: Among the local horses, she is considered the top contender to defeat Ryuno Flight. Although she has finished second to Ryuno Flight in consecutive graded stakes, she has demonstrated high ability. This time, she has drawn the ideal outside gate 8, giving her a statistical advantage. If Apatite Tesoro struggles from the inside gate, Misty Rise has a strong chance of overtaking all the JRA contenders.
JRA Wildcards – Unknown Potential and Suitability
7. Tokai Macherie: She has only raced on turf so far, making this her dirt debut. However, her victory on heavy turf suggests she has the power to handle tough track conditions. Drawing the favorable gate 7 is another plus. If she takes to the dirt, she could easily outperform her odds.
1. Taisei Flessa: A talented JRA horse with a 5th place finish in a G3 race. Her connections are confident in her dirt ability, but the innermost gate 1 is a major disadvantage.
11. Miss Valencia: Also making her dirt debut, but she has drawn the perfect outside gate 11. An equipment change could lead to a dramatic improvement if she handles the dirt surface.
Local Dark Horses – Course Specialists and Unbeaten Risers
10. Takeno Lulu: An unbeaten local horse with two wins from two starts. If she gets a smooth trip from the favorable gate 10, she could emerge as a serious contender.
9. Emtirio: With two wins from two starts on the Mombetsu dirt 1000m, her course suitability is proven. A return to her favorite track could spark a rebound.
3. Big Karen Ruf: Her record of winning an open-class race in the JRA is among the best in the field. Her temperament is a concern, and her success will depend on whether she can stay calm during the race.
4. Kaishin Pagent and 5. Ayasan Joliene appear to be outmatched based on their records and are expected to face a tough race.
Expert Consensus and Final Outlook
The consensus among experts is that Ryuno Flight is the undisputed star. Given her overwhelming performances, course suitability, and favorable gate, it’s natural to consider her the solid favorite. The race’s focus shifts to which horse can challenge this absolute favorite and where the potential for an upset lies. The main rival, Apatite Tesoro, is highly rated for her ability but carries the significant handicap of the statistically unfavorable gate 2. If she cannot overcome this adversity, it opens the door for dark horses like Misty Rise, who drew a favorable outside gate, or the intriguing wildcards Tokai Macherie and Takeno Lulu.
Conclusion: The Expert’s Final Picks
While the data overwhelmingly points to Ryuno Flight’s superiority, the race’s history of upsets cannot be ignored. Will you bet on the absolute favorite, or will you take a chance on a longshot for a high payout? For a final conclusion and specific betting recommendations, we advise consulting the final verdict of an expert with years of experience and deep insight.
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