Do Kitasan Black’s Expensive Offspring Underperform? A Summary of Select Sale Horses Over 100 Million Yen

October 26, 2025 / Updated: October 28, 2025

Following the emergence of superstar Equinox from his first crop, expectations for Kitasan Black’s offspring soared, leading to a surge of horses selling for over 100 million yen at the Select Sale. However, with the expensive horses that have debuted struggling to perform—and not a single one reaching open class—concerns are growing among horse racing fans. This article summarizes the performance of Kitasan Black’s high-priced progeny and discusses their future prospects.

Key Takeaways

• No Kitasan Black offspring sold for over 100 million yen at the Select Sale has yet become an open-class winner.
• Many high-priced horses, including the top-priced M’s Begin (¥590 million), are struggling in maiden or lower-class races.
• Equinox’s historic success inflated the prices of his siblings, but many suggest the sire is “hit-or-miss.”
• Numerous well-bred, expensive horses are still yet to debut, making their future performance a key point of interest.

Performance of Debuted Offspring Over 100M Yen

As of October 2025, the performance of Kitasan Black’s offspring sold for over 100 million yen (excluding tax) at the Select Sale is detailed below. No horse has yet emerged as an open-class competitor.

The fact that the top-priced M’s Begin was defeated in his debut, and that several others have failed to win in central racing (JRA) before being transferred, has led to harsh criticism that the investments are not yielding returns.

Notable Expensive Horses Yet to Debut

On the other hand, a number of high-priced horses with strong pedigrees, such as the half-brothers to Ascoli Piceno and Killer Ability, are awaiting their debuts. Here are some of the most anticipated prospects.

2-Year-Olds (2023 Foals)

• Danon Ascolti (¥400M): Half-brother to Ascoli Piceno
• Backdraft (¥380M): Closely related to multiple European Group winners
• Hey Jude (¥320M): Half-brother to Killer Ability
• Shonan Wakusei (¥290M): Aunts are Chrono Genesis and Normcore
• Suave Mars (¥190M): Half-brother to North Bridge
• Lambrusco (¥150M): Half-brother to Sciacchetra

Yearlings (2024 Foals)

• 2024 C/F ex Mosheen (¥420M): Half-sibling to Primo Scene
• 2024 C/F ex Serienholde (¥410M): Half-sibling to Schnell Meister
• 2024 C/F ex Normcore (¥410M): Dam is Normcore
• 2024 C/F ex Southern Stars (¥270M): Half-sibling to Stars on Earth

Why Do Kitasan Black’s Expensive Offspring Struggle?

Various opinions have been shared regarding why Kitasan Black’s high-priced progeny have been underperforming.

• Equinox may have been a positive outlier: There’s a view that the emergence of the legendary Equinox may have excessively inflated the overall valuation of the sire’s offspring.
• Characteristics of the Black Tide lineage: Like his sire, Black Tide, Kitasan Black may be a “home run hitter” type of stallion whose offspring have inconsistent results, rather than producing consistent winners.
• A trend of success from lower-priced horses: Just as Kitasan Black himself was not an expensive horse, there’s an opinion that successful runners are more likely to emerge from less expensive sales or racing clubs.
• Cautious training for high-value horses: Expensive horses tend to be trained more cautiously to avoid injury, which could result in delayed debuts or an inability to apply sufficient training loads.

With stud fees rising and the quality of mares improving, some argue that the true test for Kitasan Black’s progeny is yet to come. However, the current results have been a harsh reality for many owners.

Frequently Asked Questions

Are expensive Kitasan Black offspring really unprofitable?

Currently, no horse purchased for over 100 million yen has earned back its purchase price in prize money. However, with many well-bred horses yet to debut, this evaluation could change depending on future results.Do Kitasan Black’s offspring struggle with long distances?

While their sire was a stayer who won the Kikuka Sho and Tenno Sho (Spring), his progeny’s results have cast doubt on their long-distance aptitude, with poor showings in the Kikuka Sho. Some point to the influence of damsire Sakurabakushin O as a potential factor.Why was Equinox so dominant?

While some argue that Equinox’s dominance was due to a weaker generation or favorable matchups, he received the highest praise from top international horsemen, who called him a “generational horse” and “in a class of his own.” His talent is globally recognized, and it is generally accepted that he was an exceptional individual among Kitasan Black’s offspring.