Croix du Nord’s Next Race: Hong Kong or Arima Kinen? A Deep Dive into the Derby Winner’s Optimal Path

October 30, 2025

The 2025 Derby winner, Croix du Nord, has been pre-entered for the Hong Kong International Races. Will his year-end campaign target the Hong Kong Cup/Vase or the domestic Arima Kinen? This article provides an in-depth analysis of his pedigree, race record, and course suitability. Considering the strategy of trainer Takashi Saito and the broader team, we offer an expert’s perspective on the champion’s optimal choice.

Key Points of This Article

• 2025 Derby winner Croix du Nord is considering the Hong Kong Cup/Vase and the Arima Kinen for his year-end target.
• He excels with front-running tactics on firm ground, making him highly suited to the fast track expected in Hong Kong.
• The Hong Kong Cup at 2000m, his optimal distance, offers a stage where the track and pace can maximize his strengths.
• The Arima Kinen presents a challenge with its tricky course layout but holds the allure of Japan’s most prestigious Grand Prix title.
• Considering the team’s international strategy and the goal of increasing his stallion value, the Hong Kong Cup emerges as the most logical choice.

Profile of Croix du Nord: Pedigree and Performance

To accurately assess Croix du Nord’s capabilities, we will analyze his pedigree, key performances, and the lessons learned from his overseas campaign to evaluate his suitability for the year-end targets.

Pedigree: A Fusion of Kitasan Black and Cape Cross

Croix du Nord’s bloodline encapsulates the qualities demanded by modern horse racing. His sire, Kitasan Black, was a two-time Japanese Horse of the Year renowned for his incredible stamina. His dam’s sire, Cape Cross, is a source of world-class turf speed, having produced champions like Sea The Stars. This fusion of Japanese stamina and European turf aptitude provides the genetic foundation for his exceptional versatility. His name, “Croix du Nord” (French for “Northern Cross”), also hints at his international ambitions.

Classic Campaign Record

As a two-year-old, Croix du Nord won his debut race in record time, followed by consecutive victories in the Tokyo Sports Hai Nisai Stakes (G2) and the Hopeful Stakes (G1), earning him the JRA Award for Best Two-Year-Old Colt. In his three-year-old season, he finished second in the Satsuki Sho (G1) before a dominant victory in the Tokyo Yushun (Japanese Derby, G1), establishing himself as the leader of his generation. His official rating of 120 places him on par with recent Derby winners. Notably, all five of his domestic races have been on “firm” ground.

Lessons from the European Campaign: Challenges and Suitability

Opting to skip the Kikuka Sho, he embarked on a French campaign, winning the Prix du Prince d’Orange (G3) on heavy ground and demonstrating his adaptability to softer European turf. However, in his primary target, the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe (G1), he finished a disappointing 14th on similarly heavy ground. This result is attributed to tactical issues, as he failed to secure an ideal position early and expended too much energy on the grueling track. This experience suggests that the firm, fast conditions expected at Sha Tin Racecourse in December would be significantly more favorable for him than the soft turf of Europe.

Furthermore, his ideal racing style is to control the race from a forward position, and he performs best in a steadily paced contest. This tactical preference is a crucial factor when comparing the nature of the races in Hong Kong and the Arima Kinen.

Year-End Options: Hong Kong International Races vs. Arima Kinen

We will compare and analyze the three potential year-end targets for Croix du Nord, exploring the strategic suitability and challenges each race presents.

The Hong Kong Challenge

The pre-entry into both the Hong Kong Cup and Hong Kong Vase is a tactically sound move.

Strategic Suitability of the Hong Kong Cup (G1, 2000m)

Sha Tin’s 2000m course is a flat track with a long home straight, demanding sustained speed. This is arguably the optimal distance for Croix du Nord, who won the Hopeful Stakes over this trip. The fast pace typical of Hong Kong races perfectly suits his front-running style, providing a stage to showcase his full ability. Historically, Japanese middle-distance horses have excelled in this race.

The Hong Kong Vase (G1, 2400m) Option

While he won the Derby at 2400m, this race is known for attracting powerful European stayers. His Derby victory demonstrated his aptitude on firm ground, but the result of the Arc raises some concern about his stamina under top-level pressure. Additionally, the prize money is lower than that of the Hong Kong Cup.

The Domestic Grand Prix: Arima Kinen’s (G1, 2500m) Allure and Obstacles

Nakayama’s inner 2500m course is a tricky layout with six corners and a short home straight. It demands tactical acumen more than pure speed, and upsets are common. Winning the Arima Kinen is one of the highest honors in Japanese racing, and three-year-olds have a strong historical record. However, the unpredictable race flow could be a risk for a horse like Croix du Nord, who thrives on rhythm.

This decision is also deeply connected to his future value as a stallion. A victory in a major international G1 like the Hong Kong Cup would dramatically increase his global profile, whereas an Arima Kinen win would cement his legacy at home. It is a long-term judgment call: domestic glory versus international commercial value.

Team Strategy: The Philosophy of Takashi Saito and Northern Farm

A horse’s campaign is determined by the trainer’s strategy. Trainer Takashi Saito’s track record shows that this Hong Kong entry aligns with his proven patterns of success.

The Chrono Genesis Blueprint for Success

The champion mare Chrono Genesis, also trained by Saito, simultaneously conquered domestic titles like the Takarazuka Kinen (twice) and the Arima Kinen while pursuing an ambitious international schedule, including a second in the Dubai Sheema Classic and a run in the Arc. This two-front strategy—targeting Japan’s top races while challenging the world’s best—is precisely the model being considered for Croix du Nord.

Northern Farm’s Global Philosophy

Trainer Saito is an indispensable partner for Northern Farm and Sunday Racing, the leading forces in Japanese racing. Their philosophy is to prove the superiority of their bloodlines on the world stage, and the Hong Kong International Races are a cornerstone of this global strategy. Saito has proven his ability to prepare horses to win both at home and abroad, meaning the choice for Croix du Nord is a purely strategic decision based on which option yields the greatest reward.

Analysis of Potential Rivals

Analyzing the formidable rivals Croix du Nord would face in each scenario is a critical component of calculating the risk and return.

Hong Kong’s Undisputed King: Romantic Warrior

The undisputed king of Hong Kong’s middle-distance division, Romantic Warrior boasts an incredible record at Sha Tin. Having won the Hong Kong Cup three times, he has demonstrated absolute dominance over this course and distance. Facing him on his home turf is one of the toughest challenges in the world at 2000m.

Elite Rivals at Home and Abroad

The Hong Kong races will attract other top Japanese contenders and powerful European challengers. Meanwhile, the Arima Kinen will feature a star-studded field of Japan’s best, including older G1 winners like Do Deuce and Justin Palace, generational rivals like Kikuka Sho winner Urban Chic, and Byzantine Dream, who finished ahead of him in the Arc. While the Hong Kong Cup is a focused battle—”Can he beat the king?”—the Arima Kinen is a chaotic melee against a diverse and powerful field.

Conclusion: What is the Optimal Path for Croix du Nord?

We will now synthesize the preceding analysis to provide an evidence-based final recommendation.

Pros and Cons of Each Option

Croix du Nord is a horse who performs best on firm ground with front-running tactics. The Hong Kong Cup is a perfect fit in terms of distance, track, and pace, but it presents the formidable obstacle of local champion Romantic Warrior. The Arima Kinen offers the allure of domestic glory but poses tactical challenges with its tricky course and unfamiliar distance.

Final Recommendation: The Hong Kong Cup is the Strongest Option

Based on this comprehensive analysis, the most logical and rewarding target is the Hong Kong Cup.

Basis for Recommendation:

1. Conditional Suitability: The firm ground and steady pace at Sha Tin will maximize Croix du Nord’s strengths and completely mitigate the weaknesses exposed in the Arc.
2. Optimal Distance: 2000m is his “sweet spot,” a distance at which he has won and placed in G1 races.
3. Strategic Value: A victory over a reigning champion in Hong Kong would provide an unparalleled boost to his international reputation and future stallion value.
4. Risk Management: The race itself has fewer variables and is more predictable than the tactically complex Arima Kinen, making it a better platform for him to perform to his full potential.

Therefore, targeting the Hong Kong Cup is the most ambitious, strategically sound, and ultimately logical path for Croix du Nord to cement his legacy as a true champion of his era.