Breeders’ Cup Mile 2025 Predictions: Who Can Topple the Favorite, Notable Speech?

A Thorough Comparison of International Bookmaker Odds

A preview of the 2025 Breeders’ Cup Mile (G1). With the absolute favorite Notable Speech facing a host of powerful challengers from America and Europe, this article provides an in-depth analysis of the top contenders, compares the latest odds from international bookmakers, and uncovers the keys to victory by examining historical race data to help you conquer this world-class event.

Key Takeaways

• The 2025 Breeders’ Cup Mile features Notable Speech, from the C. Appleby stable aiming for a third consecutive win, as the undisputed favorite.
• Challengers include the American contingent with strong course suitability (like Johannes) and European 3-year-olds who have a favorable historical record (like Sahlan).
• International bookmakers overwhelmingly favor Notable Speech, but the race for second is a wide-open contest.
• Past race trends show a significant advantage for horses with a “closer/off-the-pace” running style, who deliver a powerful late kick from the back of the pack.

Introduction: The World’s Best Milers Converge at Del Mar

The Breeders’ Cup World Championships is the festival that determines the true champions of horse racing. Among its prestigious events, the race that crowns the king of the turf mile division is the $2 million “Breeders’ Cup Mile (G1T)”. Held on November 1, 2025, at the scenic Del Mar Racetrack in California, this race once again attracts the world’s finest milers.

The central theme of this year’s Breeders’ Cup Mile is the fierce battle for supremacy between the powerful contingent from Europe and the elite North American turf horses defending their home turf. The European contenders, in particular, are overwhelming in their depth and accomplishments, and the bookmakers’ odds are structured around them. However, Del Mar’s tight-cornered course often presents a tactical challenge for horses accustomed to the wide, sweeping straightaways of European racecourses, forcing them to adapt.

This race is not merely a contest of speed. It is a battle of intellect and ability, where different racing cultures, training philosophies, and race tactics intersect—truly befitting the name “World Championships.” This article will not only provide a thorough analysis of the leading contenders but also offer a multi-faceted perspective for conquering this world-class event by comprehensively comparing and analyzing the odds presented by major international bookmakers.

An Unshakable Favorite? A Deep Dive into Notable Speech

In this year’s Breeders’ Cup Mile, the horse unanimously favored by bookmakers is Godolphin’s 4-year-old, Notable Speech. This talented son of Dubawi arrives at Del Mar in peak condition, seeking redemption for his third-place finish in last year’s race.

The biggest factor supporting his strength is his trainer, Charlie Appleby. His expertise, often dubbed the “Appleby Factor,” boasts an astonishing track record in this race. Appleby has guided three different horses to victory in the Breeders’ Cup Mile in three consecutive years: Space Blues in 2021, Modern Games in 2022, and Master of The Seas in 2023. This is not a result of mere luck or reliance on a single great horse, but proof that he has established a replicable system for winning this specific race.

A glimpse of this strategy is evident in Notable Speech’s 2025 campaign. After a tough European season with four consecutive G1 losses, the team chose the Woodbine Mile (G1) in Canada as the final prep race. This race was not only a “Win and You’re In” qualifier but also served the clear purpose of giving him experience on a tight North American track. Appleby himself stated, “The trip to Woodbine was to give him experience on a [North American] track and to get his confidence back with a win.” As intended, Notable Speech delivered a stunning late run to win decisively, signaling a complete return to form.

This sequence of events demonstrates the meticulous strategy the Appleby team employs for the Breeders’ Cup Mile. They do not rely solely on European achievements but carefully prepare to overcome the unique demands of American racing, such as handling tight turns and different pacing. With the experience gained from last year’s defeat, a year of growth, and, most importantly, the strategy of a team that knows this race inside and out, Notable Speech stands as a contender with an exceptionally high probability of winning, transcending the simple evaluation of a “proven horse.”

Profiles of the Challengers: Analyzing the Top Contenders

A diverse group of challengers from America, Europe, and Japan has assembled to challenge the absolute favorite, Notable Speech. Analyzing their abilities and suitability is essential for building a solid betting strategy.

The American Defense

The defending American contingent is composed of specialists, each with distinct strengths.JohannesConsidered the leader of the American team, this 5-year-old’s second-place finish ahead of Notable Speech in last year’s Breeders’ Cup Mile proves he is among the best of his generation. His greatest weapon is his dominant performance at California racetracks, especially Del Mar. He enters the race in top form after winning the City of Hope Mile (G2) for the second consecutive year. However, he has a clear weakness, having failed to perform well when racing outside of California. With his retirement to stud announced after this race, his connections are highly motivated for a win.RhetoricalRhetorical has followed a “classic” path indicated by historical data. The Coolmore Turf Mile S. (G1) at Keeneland, which he won, is historically known as the most important prep race for the Breeders’ Cup Mile. He is a lightly raced horse who has improved with each start, and his potential is yet to be fully realized.Formidable ManThe most crucial statistic for this horse is his perfect record of 6 wins in 6 starts on the Del Mar turf course. In terms of course suitability, he is second to none in this field. The decision to skip a prep race and head straight to this event is a strategic one by his team, and the key will be whether he can perform at his best while fresh.

European Elite and Global Threats

Europe has once again sent a formidable lineup.Sahlan & The Lion In WinterThese two horses perfectly fit the profile of “European 3-year-olds,” the most successful group in recent Breeders’ Cup Mile history. Sahlan, in particular, won the Prix du Moulin de Longchamp, one of Europe’s premier mile G1 races, and his explosive turn of foot is world-class. The Lion In Winter is a highly anticipated horse from world-renowned trainer Aidan O’Brien, and his pedigree and connections make him impossible to dismiss.ArgineThe challenger from Japan, Argine, is considered a longshot by bookmakers (20/1 morning line odds). However, the recent success of Japanese horses in major international races is well-known, and her presence adds an intriguing element to the race.

This presents an interesting dilemma for handicappers. If you prioritize long-term data showing that horses prepping in Southern California have underperformed over the past 20 years, you might downgrade Johannes and Formidable Man. On the other hand, if you believe in a horse’s overwhelming suitability for a specific course (course specialty), they become top contenders. In contrast, Rhetorical and the European horses have followed a “classic path” with a history of success. Unraveling which factor will have a greater impact on the outcome is the key to a winning ticket.

International Bookmaker Odds: A Head-to-Head Comparison

When predicting the Breeders’ Cup Mile, the odds offered by international bookmakers are a crucial indicator. Here, we compare the odds from major bookmakers to analyze the market’s assessment and trends. Note that odds are often displayed in fractional format. For example, “5/2” means you win 5 for every 2 wagered, which is equivalent to 3.50 in decimal odds.

Analyzing the Odds Trends

This odds table is more than just a list of numbers; it can be read as a “global sentiment map” showing how the world’s betting market views this race.

• Consensus on the Favorite: All bookmakers clearly support Notable Speech as the top choice. His odds are concentrated in the 2/1 (3.00) to 5/2 (3.50) range, indicating an international consensus on his ability and his team’s reliability.
• A Crowded Second Tier: The group following Notable Speech is a tight pack of talented horses, including Sahlan, The Lion In Winter, Johannes, Formidable Man, and Rhetorical, with odds ranging from 5/1 (6.00) to 10/1 (11.00). This shows that even the bookmakers are struggling to establish a clear hierarchy, and it is within this variance that betting value can be found.
• Finding Value in Regional Biases: A closer look at the odds reveals regional biases. For example, Johannes, being based in the US, may have shorter odds with American bookmakers, while European bookmakers might offer more attractive, higher odds. Conversely, a European challenger like Sahlan might be underestimated in the American market, offering a potentially high payout. This discrepancy in odds is a “market inefficiency,” and savvy bettors can find opportunities to place wagers on more favorable terms than other players by analyzing these regional differences in evaluation.

The Formula for Victory: Betting Strategies from Historical Data

The Breeders’ Cup Mile is a race with clear trends in its past results. By analyzing this historical data and applying it to this year’s contenders, it’s possible to build a more accurate betting strategy.Running Style: Closers Have a Decisive AdvantageIn the last 25 years, a front-runner has never won this race. The average position of the winner at the race’s midpoint is more than five lengths off the lead, making a late charge in the stretch the typical winning pattern. This data suggests that horses who can conserve energy at the back and unleash a powerful late kick should be valued more highly than those who try to win from the front.Origin: European 3-Year-Olds on the RiseLooking at the prep races of past winners, two routes stand out: European shippers have won 10 times, and horses who prepped at Keeneland have won 8 times. Particularly noteworthy is the success of 3-year-olds from Europe. Horses in this category have won multiple times in recent years.Record: G1/G2 Winning Experience is EssentialTop-level experience is a must to win this race. Of the last 25 winners, 23 had previously won a G1 or G2 race. This shows that this is a stage where true ability is tested, and momentum alone is not enough.Odds: Upsets are Relatively RareWhile longshots can sometimes surprise, this is generally a race where the favorites perform well. 16 of the last 25 winners had odds of less than 5/1 (6.00), and the winner often comes from the top of the betting market.

Let’s apply this data to this year’s top contenders. The “closers are favored” rule benefits Notable Speech, who won the Woodbine Mile with a brilliant late run; Sahlan, known for his sharp turn of foot; and Johannes, who showed a powerful closing kick in last year’s race. The strong “European 3-year-old” profile fits both Sahlan and The Lion In Winter perfectly. This data indicates they are not just challengers but, statistically, the most dangerous threats. The “G1/G2 winning experience” requirement is met by most of the top contenders, including Notable Speech, Johannes, Sahlan, and Rhetorical.

In summary, historical data acts as a series of filters. While Notable Speech meets many criteria as the favorite, the statistical advantage held by Sahlan and The Lion In Winter as “European 3-year-olds” cannot be ignored. A data-driven approach suggests they emerge as contenders with value that may exceed their odds.

Summary and Final Conclusion

The 2025 Breeders’ Cup Mile has shaped up to be a fascinating race with multiple layers of analysis. The favorite, Notable Speech, is the true star of the show, sent by trainer Charlie Appleby, who is seeking his fourth consecutive win in this race. Having learned from last year’s defeat and prepared through a strategic campaign, he appears to have few weaknesses.

However, the quality of the challengers aiming to dethrone him is extremely high. The American contingent, led by course specialists Johannes and Formidable Man, will leverage their home-field advantage at Del Mar. Meanwhile, from Europe, 3-year-olds Sahlan and The Lion In Winter, strongly supported by historical data, are eagerly eyeing the throne. The international bookmakers’ odds reflect this power dynamic while also hinting at the existence of “value odds” arising from regional differences in evaluation.

We hope the data and analysis presented in this article will serve as a valuable guide to conquering this world-class miler championship.

This article has provided an analysis of international bookmaker odds and an evaluation of each horse. For final selections and betting slips, please check the expert’s predictions from the link below.

See the Expert’s Final Picks