Here is our race preview for the Kannazuki Special (A2) at Urawa Racecourse on October 30, 2025. Nishino Kashmir, a former JRA Open Class horse still seeking her first win after transferring to the Minami Kanto circuit, is the main contender. However, the field is full of dark horses, including Tonopa, who returns to a favorable course, and the rapidly improving Taro Thunder. This article provides a thorough analysis of all 12 entrants, including their training, stable comments, and past performance, to break down the key race dynamics and identify the top contenders.
Article Highlights
- ✓Nishino Kashmir is the central figure based on her track record and current form, aiming for her first Minami Kanto victory.
- ✓Tonopa, returning to his favored Urawa 1500m, is poised for a comeback, making his recent poor performances negligible.
- ✓Up-and-coming 4-year-olds Taro Thunder and Haguregumo are stepping up in class, riding a wave of momentum.
- ✓A fast pace is expected due to multiple front-runners, which could favor stalkers and closers.
In-Depth Analysis of Top Contenders: The Experts’ Picks
Even in what’s expected to be a competitive race, three horses have garnered high praise from the experts. We’ll take a deep dive into their stable comments, workout performance, and past results to understand why they stand out.
【◎ #8 Nishino Kashmir】Aiming for a Long-Awaited First Minami Kanto Win
The comment from trainer Ichimura, “◎ I expect a win,” shows the stable’s immense confidence. “She has experience at Urawa and remains in top form. It’s about time she gets a win,” he said. Her record since transferring to Minami Kanto has been remarkably consistent. She ran a strong second in the Shirakobato Sho despite a new course and jockey, suggesting she’ll perform even better with that experience. Her ability, honed in the JRA Open Class, is a cut above this field. This is the perfect opportunity to shed her frustrating “silver collector” status.
| Date | Racecourse | Race Name | Dist. | Track | Finish | Time (Margin) | Jockey (Wgt.) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/09/24 | Urawa | Shirakobato Sho (A2) | D1500 | Firm | 2 | 1:35.9 (0.5) | A. Harita (55) |
| 2025/09/05 | Ohi | Diva Sho (A2) | D1600 | Soft | 2 | 1:42.3 (0.6) | T. Yano (55) |
| 2025/08/07 | Kawasaki | Tenka Muso Tokubetsu (A2B1) | D1500 | Firm | 2 | 1:35.3 (1.1) | T. Yano (55) |
| 2025/07/09 | Kawasaki | Sparking Lady (JpnIII) | D1600 | Firm | 9 | 1:46.8 (5.4) | T. Yano (55) |
【○ #1 Tonopa】Set for a Rebound Under Ideal Conditions
His last two races can be disregarded due to unfavorable distances and a poor start. This horse’s true potential was on display three starts ago, when he finished a close second at this same Urawa 1500m distance with a near-record time. Trainer Kokubo is confident in his rebound, stating, “The conditions are very promising.” His workouts have been excellent, and the inside post is a major advantage for a horse that likes to be on the lead. The stage is perfectly set.
| Date | Racecourse | Race Name | Dist. | Track | Finish | Time (Margin) | Jockey (Wgt.) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/10/14 | Kawasaki | Kakio Sprint (OP) | D900 | Firm | 6 | 54.5 (1.1) | S. Niihara (55) |
| 2025/09/09 | Kawasaki | Sparking Night Challenge (A2B1) | D1600 | Good | 7 | 1:44.8 (1.8) | H. Sakurai (57) |
| 2025/06/26 | Urawa | Kobushigatake Tokubetsu (A2) | D1500 | Yielding | 2 | 1:31.9 (Neck) | T. Sasagawa (57) |
| 2025/05/27 | Urawa | Sanaezuki Tokubetsu (B1B2) | D1400 | Firm | 1 | 1:26.3 (-Nose) | T. Sasagawa (57) |
【○ #12 Taro Thunder】Stepping Up in Class with Significant Improvement
This well-bred horse, whose brother was an open stakes winner, is starting to show his true potential. Trainer Kokubo emphasizes his improvement, saying, “Considering his progress from his first autumn race, he should be able to compete on even terms.” His final workout was spectacular, indicating he is in peak condition. While this is a significant step up in class, his rapid growth and excellent form make it entirely possible for him to overcome the A2 class barrier.
| Date | Racecourse | Race Name | Dist. | Track | Finish | Time (Margin) | Jockey (Wgt.) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/09/26 | Urawa | Momijizuki Tokubetsu (B2B3) | D1500 | Firm | 4 | 1:36.2 (0.5) | Y. Yamanaka (55) |
| 2025/07/09 | Kawasaki | Edokiriko Tokubetsu (B3) | D1500 | Firm | 3 | 1:37.6 (2.0) | T. Yano (56) |
| 2025/06/27 | Urawa | Satte-juku Tokubetsu (B2B3) | D1400 | Soft | 3 | 1:27.2 (1.2) | T. Yano (55) |
| 2025/05/12 | Kawasaki | Kusabue Tokubetsu (B2B3) | D1500 | Yielding | 7 | 1:37.9 (1.2) | M. Mikamoto (55) |
Kannazuki Special: Full Field Analysis (Horses 1-12)
Beyond the main contenders, a diverse group of talented horses are looking to make their mark. Here’s a detailed analysis of the entire 12-horse field, including their ratings, condition, and past performances.
#1 Tonopa (Jockey: T. Sasagawa)
Assessment: Last two races are excusable. Returning to his favored Urawa 1500m, he’s a prime contender.
Stable’s View: Trainer Kokubo is confident with the improved conditions. Workouts are perfect.
Insight: If he can take the lead from the inside post, he’ll be tough to beat.
#3 Haguregumo (Jockey: Y. Kasano)
Assessment: Proved his class with a decisive win last out. Not to be underestimated, even off a layoff.
Stable’s View: Trainer Hirayama is confident in his fitness. Training has been smooth.
Insight: If the pace up front is hot, his closing kick could come into play.
#8 Nishino Kashmir (Jockey: A. Harita)
Assessment: The top favorite, boasting JRA Open Class experience and consistent Minami Kanto form.
Stable’s View: Trainer Ichimura’s strong comment, “I expect a win,” says it all. She’s in peak condition.
Insight: Her versatile running style makes her less dependent on the race flow. The most likely to win on pure ability.
#12 Taro Thunder (Jockey: Y. Yamanaka)
Assessment: A well-bred horse on the rise. With significant improvement, he can handle the class jump.
Stable’s View: Trainer Kokubo gives his seal of approval, calling his preparation “satisfactory.” He’s at his peak.
Insight: A threat to the established favorites, leveraging his momentum, growth, and a light weight of 53kg.
*Detailed analysis for other entrants is available based on the source text.
Race Dynamics and Strategy
The key to this race is the pace. With multiple front-runners like #1 Tonopa, #6 American Seed, and #11 Kentucky Sky, a fierce battle for the lead is expected from the start. Given the layout of the Urawa 1500m course, a fast, unrelenting pace is highly likely. This scenario creates a perfect opportunity for horses that can stalk the pace, like #8 Nishino Kashmir, or for closers who can save ground and make a late run, such as #3 Haguregumo and #7 Energy Poko A Poko. The most probable outcome is the front-runners setting a hot pace, only to be caught by the stalkers and closers in the stretch.
Conclusion: The Pro’s Final Picks
While Nishino Kashmir stands as a solid favorite, this is a challenging race with appealing challengers like Tonopa returning to ideal conditions and the up-and-coming Taro Thunder. An upset is certainly possible depending on how the race unfolds.
For our final predictions and recommended bets based on this analysis, please see the link below.See the Pro’s Final Picks and Bets Here
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