[2025 Urawa 11R Momiji Tokubetsu Predictions] Data-Driven Analysis: Is Joe Toby the Lynchpin or Blazing Heat the Dark Horse? A Deep Dive into All 13 Runners

A preview of the Urawa 11R “Momiji Tokubetsu” race, held on October 31, 2025. This is a 1400m B2 class race where up-and-coming 3-year-olds clash with seasoned veterans. This article provides a thorough analysis of all 13 runners based on objective data such as training performance and stable comments. From top contenders like the speedy Joe Toby and the sharp finisher Blazing Heat to potential longshots, we break down their chances and concerns as revealed by the data.

Key Takeaways

• The most likely horse to control the pace is the speedy Joe Toby.
• It’s crucial to assess the condition of proven horses returning from a layoff, such as Brave Ruler and Monument King.
• Pay attention to potential improvements from horses who excel at the Urawa course, like Lau Avant Flare and Sarasa Good Work.
• This is a multi-faceted analysis of the top contenders’ strengths, weaknesses, and the potential for dark horses, all based on objective data.

2025 Momiji Tokubetsu (B2) Race Preview

The Momiji Tokubetsu, a highlight of the autumn racing season at Urawa. A field of talented B2 class horses gathers for a fierce battle on the tight and often unpredictable 1400m Urawa course. The main focus of this race is the power dynamic between the surging 3-year-olds and the battle-hardened older horses. With front-runners aiming to win with speed and closers waiting for the race to unfold, the strategies are sure to clash, making this a difficult race to predict. In this article, we will comprehensively analyze objective data such as training times, stable comments, and past performance to dissect each horse’s ability and condition. We will avoid speculation and baseless rumors, instead using a data-driven, multi-angled approach to find the keys to cracking this challenging race. We’ll uncover the chances and concerns revealed by the data, exploring how the horses will handle Urawa Racecourse’s unique tight corners and who will seize control of the race.

Race Information: Oct 31, 2025, Urawa 11R Momiji Tokubetsu (B2)

First, let’s review the basic race information. This is crucial data that forms the foundation of your betting strategy.

Full Runner Analysis: Each Horse’s Chances and Concerns

Here, we’ll analyze each of the 13 runners one by one, integrating insights from their training, stable comments, and race history.

Gate 1, No. 1: Pink Towel Chan

Data Summary: Trainer Tadashi Yamada is optimistic, stating, “Her condition is good, so I’m looking forward to it.” While her best distance is 1200m at Funabashi, he’s confident about the distance, saying, “On a light Urawa track, she can handle 1400 meters.” Data points also note that “her agility makes a course change no problem,” and her training is described as “light work but progressing smoothly.”

Analysis: The inside gate at Urawa is a prime position for a horse with a quick start. However, her neighbor, No. 2 Joe Toby, is one of the fastest horses in the field. If she concedes the lead to Joe Toby at the start, she risks getting boxed in along the rail. Her fate hinges on whether she can win the speed duel to the first corner.

Gate 2, No. 2: Joe Toby

Data Summary: Trainer Kokubo has immense faith in this horse, saying, “If she can run her own race, the results will follow.” Her training movement is rated as “exceptional,” and data points confirm she “ranks among the top in speed even in this field.” Her record when leading is an overwhelming 1-2-2-1-1.

Analysis: She is the top candidate to control the pace of this race and is favored as the top pick in the netkeiba odds. Her strategy is solely to lead from the front, which means she’ll be heavily marked. However, her outstanding training condition suggests she’s more than capable of handling the pressure, making her the central figure in this race.

Gate 3, No. 3: Brave Ruler

Data Summary: A proven performer in the B2 class. Trainer Yokoyama is cautious, noting, “He seems like the type to improve after a race,” but his training has been highly rated as “sharp despite the layoff” and “maintaining good form,” suggesting he’s well-prepared even after a break.

Analysis: Contrary to the stable’s reserved comments, he has shown sharp movement in training. The betting odds also rate him highly. If you trust his training performance over the stable’s words, he has a strong chance of contending for the win right off the layoff.

Gate 4, No. 4: Pino Hohoa

Data Summary: Has struggled this year, failing to even finish in the top five. Trainer Takashi Noguchi hopes “she’ll show her true ability in her third race this fall,” but the training report is blunt: “not much change.”

Analysis: There’s a lack of positive data points for this horse. While a third race after a layoff is typically when a horse’s condition peaks, her training doesn’t support this. Having finished in double digits in her last two races, it’s difficult to imagine a sudden turnaround here.

Gate 4, No. 5: Lau Avant Flare

Data Summary: Recent results have been poor, but trainer Shigeta comments, “Her preparation has been very smooth.” Data points highlight her “record of finishing in the top two in a B1 class race at Urawa 1400m,” and the jockey change to the skilled Tsubasa Sasagawa is seen as a major plus.

Analysis: A classic candidate for a “turnaround.” Her recent losses will likely lower her popularity, but she has two clear positive factors: course experience and an upgraded jockey. She has issues at the gate, but if the expert jockey can manage a smooth start, it wouldn’t be surprising to see her in contention.

Gate 5, No. 6: Blazing Heat

Data Summary: Highly rated for his last race, where he secured 2nd place with a strong, sustained run in a race that favored front-runners. Trainer Kazuhito Kawashima confirms he is in “good form,” and he has a good rapport with jockey Shige Honda.

Analysis: The fact that he came within 0.1 seconds of the favorite, Joe Toby, in his last race proves his ability. With Joe Toby expected to lead and Blazing Heat closing from mid-pack, a similar race scenario is likely, making his performance repeatable. If the pace works in his favor, an upset is well within reach.

Gate 5, No. 7: Candelaria

Data Summary: Trainer Kiyoshi Arai gives a noncommittal comment: “It would be good if she gets a clean break and finds her rhythm, but you can’t count on it…” However, data shows she’s a consistent performer, finishing in the top five in every race since her third start, and she has a record of posting the fastest final 3 furlongs at Urawa.

Analysis: A difficult horse to assess due to the gap between the stable’s cautious comments and her explosive late speed shown in the data. Her inconsistent starts are her biggest weakness, but if she can track the field from the back in a fast-paced race, she possesses the destructive power to pass them all in the final stretch.

Gate 6, No. 8: Sarasa Good Work

Data Summary: Hasn’t produced results in two races since returning, but trainer Hitoshi Sasaki is hopeful for a rebound with the change in conditions, saying, “The Urawa course suits her well, so it might be her time.” Data points also suggest that “returning to Urawa, where she finished 1st and 3rd in two starts, she could pull off an upset if the race flows her way.”

Analysis: Her biggest asset is “course suitability.” She has been soundly beaten in her last two starts at Kawasaki, but she has never finished out of the top two at Urawa. Returning to her favorite track, she’s a dangerous horse that can’t be judged by her recent form.

Gate 6, No. 9: Royal Zap

Data Summary: Has been running in longer distance races recently and is now significantly shortening in distance. The data gives a harsh assessment: “Likely to be too busy keeping up. Best to watch.” Trainer Unoki states there are no concerns about his condition, saying, “He’s running back-to-back, but he’s doing well.”

Analysis: Faces two major challenges: running on short rest and a drastic cutback in distance. He will likely struggle to keep pace over 1400m and could be outrun in Urawa’s short home stretch. A top finish seems unlikely.

Gate 7, No. 10: Monument King

Data Summary: Despite being 9 years old, he has maintained consistent results. However, this time he has a longer gap between races due to being scratched, and trainer Minowa suggests he’s not at his peak, saying, “He might still be a step away from his ideal condition.”

Analysis: His consistency, which defies his age, is appealing, but the layoff is the biggest concern this time. The stable’s comments imply he may need a race to get back into form, making it difficult to expect a win while not in peak condition.

Gate 7, No. 11: Mozu Happy Road

Data Summary: A proven winner in the B2 class, but he’s considered “a type that improves with racing,” so the 3.5-month layoff is a negative factor. Trainer Kaibazawa is also skeptical, saying, “I’m not sure how he’ll do right off the bat.”

Analysis: This horse also faces the challenge of a layoff. He’s the type that performs better after having a race under his belt, so the question is how much of his ability he can show on raw talent alone. He’s too risky to be considered a top pick.

Gate 8, No. 12: Eves Belly

Data Summary: Has been finishing far behind in recent races and lacks any strong selling points. Trainer Hirayama’s comments are entirely dependent on luck: “I hope the pace collapses for the front-runners.” The consensus is that it’s wise to pass on him.

Analysis: As the stable comments suggest, this horse needs an extreme race scenario, like a complete collapse of the front-runners, to have a chance. However, based on his recent performances, it’s questionable whether he has the ability to surge to the top, even if the race unfolds in his favor.

Gate 8, No. 13: Chomechome

Data Summary: First race since transferring to the Minami-Kanto circuit. Trainer Unoki praises his potential, saying, “He has a good build. He’s in decent shape.” He has 6 wins at Kochi, but his performance after returning to the central JRA circuit was lackluster, leading some to suggest “wait and see in his first start.”

Analysis: A horse with a mix of unknown potential and uncertainty. His record at Kochi is respectable, but whether he can immediately compete in the B2 class of Minami-Kanto racing is unknown. It might be wise to watch his performance once before making a judgment.

Top Contenders Comparison: What the Data Shows

Based on the individual analyses, let’s compare the top contenders. Here is a summary of each horse’s strengths and weaknesses.

The key to this race is undoubtedly No. 2 Joe Toby. Whether she can easily take the lead or if horses like No. 1 Pink Towel Chan challenge her and increase the pace will significantly change the chances for the horses behind. If Joe Toby sets a fast pace, it could create a perfect scenario for closers like No. 6 Blazing Heat, who attacks from mid-pack, or No. 7 Candelaria, who aims for a sweeping move from the rear. On the other hand, one must also be wary of horses with clear positive changes, such as No. 5 Lau Avant Flare (jockey upgrade) and No. 8 Sarasa Good Work (return to favorite course).

Conclusion: Key Points and Final Verdict

After a multi-faceted analysis of each horse’s data, here are three key points for predicting this race:

• The Pace is Key: The race’s outcome will heavily depend on the pace set by No. 2 Joe Toby. The most crucial factor is determining whether she will have an easy solo lead or face intense pressure.
• Assessing Condition: How well proven horses like No. 3 Brave Ruler and No. 10 Monument King perform off a layoff will determine the potential for an upset. This must be judged by comparing stable comments with training performance.
• Don’t Underestimate Course Specialists: Horses with a strong record on the unique Urawa 1400m track, such as No. 5 Lau Avant Flare and No. 8 Sarasa Good Work, should not be dismissed, even if their recent form is poor.

A final decision should be made by comprehensively judging these factors. While we have analyzed the data for each horse, the final picks (◎○▲△) and betting slips should be determined after also considering their condition in the paddock and the track conditions on race day.

Next Steps

For my final conclusions and specific betting recommendations, please check the link below.See the Final Picks Here!