In-depth Data Analysis of Eishin Ligurs vs. Eishin Iwahashiru’s Chances of Victory
The “Next Star Sonoda,” a major race for 2-year-olds, brings together the next generation of dirt track stars. Undefeated since transferring to Hyogo, Eishin Ligurs clashes with Eishin Iwahashiru, winner of the preliminary “Hyogo Juvenile Cup.” Adding to the excitement, Legal Time, who finished a close second in the same race despite a disadvantage, is looking for redemption. We’ll conduct a thorough data-based analysis of each horse’s ability, training, and race strategy to uncover the key to victory.
Key Takeaways
- ✓Top contender Eishin Ligurs is in perfect condition, but a lack of experience in crowded races could be a challenge.
- ✓Preliminary race winner Eishin Iwahashiru has yet to show his full potential, making his capabilities immeasurable.
- ✓Legal Time, who finished second in the prelims, showed incredible resilience. With a smooth run, he boasts top-class ability.
- ✓The key to the race lies in how other horses will mark Eishin Ligurs’s front-running style.
Race Overview: Who Holds the Key?
First, let’s review the basic race information to predict the overall flow. The “Next Star Sonoda,” a major race for 2-year-olds, gathers exceptional talents poised to dominate future dirt tracks. It’s a key event in the “Future Champions Series” and a JRA-recognized major race, drawing significant attention.
Race Details
| Race Name | Next Star Sonoda (2-year-old Thoroughbred, Open, Set Weights) |
|---|---|
| Date | October 29, 2025 |
| Racetrack | Sonoda Racecourse |
| Course/Distance | 1400m Dirt (Right-handed) |
| Post Time | 16:15 |
Entry List
| Gate | No. | Horse Name | Sex/Age | Weight | Jockey | Stable | Odds | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Anglais | C2 | 55.0 | Shimohara Osamu | Morimoto (Nishiwaki) | 18.9 | 5 |
| 2 | 2 | Legal Time | C2 | 55.0 | Kamomiya Sachiyuki | Kashiwabara (Nishiwaki) | 13.1 | 3 |
| 3 | 3 | God Fencer | C2 | 55.0 | Yoshimura Tomohiro | Morimoto (Nishiwaki) | 14.0 | 4 |
| 4 | 4 | Southern Warrior | C2 | 55.0 | Hirose Wataru | Horidaira (Sonoda) | 57.7 | 7 |
| 5 | 5 | Eishin Ligurs | C2 | 55.0 | Komaki Futoshi | Hashimoto (Nishiwaki) | 1.4 | 1 |
| 6 | 6 | Milt Evening | C2 | 55.0 | Oyama Shingo | Horidaira (Sonoda) | 27.1 | 6 |
| 7 | 7 | Warotel | C2 | 55.0 | Sugiura Kenta | Obayashi (Sonoda) | 461.7 | 8 |
| 8 | 8 | Eishin Iwahashiru | C2 | 55.0 | Oyama Ryuta | Sakamoto (Nishiwaki) | 3.3 | 2 |
Pace Analysis
The key to the race’s pace lies with two horses: #5 Eishin Ligurs and #1 Anglais. The Eishin Ligurs camp has clearly indicated a front-running strategy, stating, “We want him to run on the lead or second on the outside again.” He showed great strength by pushing through a tough pace in his last race and is likely to aggressively take the lead again.
On the other hand, #1 Anglais also has early speed but proved he can run from off the pace in his last start, so he doesn’t need to force a speed duel. Based on this, a destructively fast pace is unlikely. We expect Eishin Ligurs to take a solo lead, or something close to it, with Anglais tracking just behind. The challenge for the rest of the field will be to figure out how to handle the pace set by Eishin Ligurs.
In-depth Analysis of Key Horses
We’ll analyze the three horses considered top-tier in this generation, both in terms of popularity and proven ability.
1. Eishin Ligurs (Est. Favorite)
Pedigree: Best Warrior (sire), Empire Maker (dam’s sire)
Strengths:
The top contender, entering this race with an undefeated streak since transferring to Hyogo. In his last race, a JRA-certified trial, he won decisively despite not being in peak condition, showcasing his immense talent. According to trainer Hashimoto, his condition has improved significantly, and he clocked an exceptional 49.8 seconds for 4 furlongs on the Nishiwaki uphill track in his final workout. A performance boost is almost certain.
Concerns:
His only weakness is inexperience. In all five of his previous races, he has run smoothly at the front and has never been tested in a pack. If he gets a bad start or is boxed in, he could show vulnerability. The overwhelming 1.4 odds are based on the assumption of a smooth race.
2. Eishin Iwahashiru (Est. 2nd Favorite)
Pedigree: Asia Express (sire), Uncle Mo (dam’s sire)
Strengths:
Winner of the preliminary Hyogo Juvenile Cup. His greatest assets are his versatility and sharp late kick, which are not dependent on the race’s pace. In his last race, he unleashed the co-fastest closing sectional from mid-pack to win a thrilling duel. Trainer Sakamoto commented, “We haven’t fully cranked him up yet,” indicating his potential is a major threat, having won a major race while still developing.
Concerns:
He will undoubtedly be a marked horse this time. As the target, it remains to be seen if he can deliver the same sharp finish as his last race. His workout times aren’t flashy, but this is due to “breezing” workouts, suggesting the team is not yet pushing him to his absolute limit.
3. Legal Time (Est. 3rd Favorite)
Pedigree: Best Warrior (sire), Precise End (dam’s sire)
Strengths:
His performance in the Hyogo Juvenile Cup was a case of “strong in defeat.” Despite suffering a critical disadvantage at a key moment, he re-accelerated to finish a close second, just a nose behind the winner. Many believe the result would have been different without the trouble, suggesting he may have the most raw talent in his generation. His early immaturity has resolved, and he is ready to perform.
Concerns:
There’s a slight concern in his preparation. Trainer Kashiwabara noted, “I wanted one more fast workout,” and his final pre-race work was light. Nevertheless, his last performance was overwhelming, and he has the potential to dominate on talent alone, even if not at 100%.
Evaluation of All Entries: The Dark Horses
Beyond the top three, several other horses have the potential to make an impact depending on how the race unfolds.
Anglais (Est. 5th Favorite):
Finished 3rd in the Hyogo Juvenile Cup. Faded late after an aggressive race but is physically and mentally maturing and can improve. His versatile running style makes him a contender.
God Fencer (Est. 4th Favorite):
Proven to be strong when he can run freely, but the inside draw is key. He could be vulnerable if he gets dirt kicked in his face.
Southern Warrior (Est. 7th Favorite):
Ran well to finish 2nd to Eishin Ligurs in his first race back from a layoff. He should improve from that run, and his ambitious workouts make him a threat.
Milt Evening (Est. 6th Favorite):
Finished 6th in his last start, but it was an inefficient race with some promising moments. If he gets a smooth trip near the front, he has the ability to challenge the leaders.
Warotel (Est. 8th Favorite):
Has been steadily gaining experience but is an underdog here. A fast-closing race would not be to his advantage; it’s a question of how he measures up against this level of competition.
Conclusion: Final Verdict from the Data
The focal point of this Next Star Sonoda is whether the heavy favorite, Eishin Ligurs, can perform under pressure for the first time, and how the power dynamic between Hyogo Juvenile Cup rivals Eishin Iwahashiru and Legal Time will shift.
If Eishin Ligurs gets an easy solo lead, he has a high chance of shutting down the rest of the field. However, if other horses apply pressure, the race will favor closers. Our analysis suggests that while Eishin Ligurs is a cut above in ability and condition, he has question marks regarding race development and experience. In contrast, Legal Time has proven his ability to overcome adversity and has the best chance of an upset with a clean run. And the reigning champ, Eishin Iwahashiru, remains a mysterious threat who has yet to reveal his full potential.
Next Steps
This article has provided a multi-faceted analysis of each horse’s ability, condition, and strategic advantages. For the final prediction, conclusion, and specific betting recommendations based on this data analysis, please check the expert’s final verdict at the link below.See the Expert’s Final Verdict & Picks
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