2025 Next Star Nagoya Preview: Rising Star Mimozano Kiseki vs. Reliable Nidone?

A deep dive into the 12 contenders clashing in the prestigious Next Star Nagoya on October 30, 2025. We analyze the showdown between the explosive Mimozano Kiseki and the consistent Nidone, breaking down every horse’s stats, pedigree, and potential to give you the winning edge.

Key Takeaways

• The 2025 Next Star Nagoya centers on the rivalry between next-gen star candidate Mimozano Kiseki and the ultra-consistent Nidone.
• The Nagoya 1500m dirt course demands a balance of speed and stamina. Historically, horses that mature early have an advantage.
• The early pace will be critical. A fast pace could set the stage for closers like Ultimatum to make a late charge.
• Don’t overlook dark horses like the undefeated Rienneke and the prolific winner Gold Letter, who could challenge the top contenders.

Race Overview & Historical Trends

To make an accurate prediction, understanding the race conditions and past trends is essential. Here, we’ll examine the characteristics of the Nagoya Racecourse 1500m dirt track and the winning patterns from previous Next Star Nagoya races.

Race Conditions

• Venue & Course: Nagoya Racecourse, 1500m Dirt (Right-handed)
• Eligibility: 2-year-old Thoroughbreds, locally stabled only
• Race Grade: Graded Stakes (JRA-recognized)

The dirt course at Nagoya Racecourse is known for its shallow base, which tends to produce faster times. This suggests an advantage for horses with superior speed or experience in fast-paced races. The 1500m distance requires not just raw speed but also a degree of stamina, making the balance between speed and endurance a critical factor in determining the winner.

Path to Victory: Lessons from the Past

The “Next Star” series aims to discover future champions, and its winners often go on to succeed on bigger stages. The 2023 winner, Mitono Universe, went on a graded stakes winning streak after this race. The 2024 champion, Elaine Asty, was the winner of that year’s first maiden race. These trends suggest that when handicapping this year’s race, we should highly value horses that have shown not just recent form, but also flashes of “future potential” and “early maturity.”

Deep Dive: The Top 4 Contenders

Based on expert analysis and early odds, this year’s Next Star Nagoya appears to be led by four main contenders. Here, we’ll delve into the abilities, records, and winning scenarios for each of these top horses.

Mimozano Kiseki – The Monster in the Making

StableHiroyuki ImazuJockeyJunki MochizukiRecord6 starts: 2-0-0-4PedigreeKitasan Mikazuki (sire), Daiwa Major (damsire)RankProjected 1st-3rd

Mimozano Kiseki is drawing the most attention as the potential star of this generation. In his last race, the “Select Gold Round 3,” he went head-to-head with the highly-regarded Nidone and won, cementing his reputation. His winning time of 1:37.6 was excellent, and his aggressive, front-running style is a major asset on the speed-favoring Nagoya track. He has all the makings of a next-generation “monster.”

Nidone – The Pillar of Consistency

StableTeruya TsunodaJockeyKeigo OhataRecord7 starts: 1-3-2-1PedigreeMatera Sky (sire), Special Week (damsire)RankProjected 1st-4th

If Mimozano Kiseki has the “sharpest kick,” then Nidone boasts the “greatest consistency.” He has finished in the top three in six of his seven career starts, a rare feat for a 2-year-old. His versatility to handle any pace is his biggest strength, making him arguably the most reliable horse to build your bets around.

Rienneke – The Undefeated Enigma

StableTakeshi KawanishiJockeySoichi KatoRecord2 starts: 1-0-1-0PedigreeTower of London (sire), Johannesburg (damsire)RankProjected 2nd-3rd

With only two races under his belt, Rienneke has earned high praise from experts for his overwhelming debut performance. He won his maiden race wire-to-wire in a blistering time, proving his exceptional speed. His full potential remains untapped, making him a major threat to upset the top two contenders.

Gold Letter – The Small Giant with Blazing Speed

StableTakao TsukadaJockeyShota TomomoriRecord6 starts: 3-0-1-2PedigreeMischievous Alex (sire), Kizuna (damsire)RankProjected 4th-5th

Gold Letter boasts the most wins in the field with three victories. Despite his small stature, he possesses powerful front-running ability. Four starts ago, he won wire-to-wire in a very fast time of 1:37.4. He is a key horse that will influence the race’s pace, and all eyes will be on his early moves.

Watch Out for Dark Horses!

While the top four are the main focus, there are no certainties in horse racing. Here, we analyze the dark horses looking to pull off an upset, grouped by their potential.

Mid-Tier with Upset Potential

• Ultimatum: Showed a sharp late kick in his last race, one of the best in the field. If the early pace is hot, the race could set up perfectly for him.
• Monday Rouryu: A talented horse riding a wave of momentum after winning his last start. He’s versatile and has the ability to contend if the race flows his way.
• Ponkotsu Sword: Ran an impressive second place three starts ago, closing from the back. He’ll need some pace to run at, but his closing power can’t be ignored.

Longshots Who Could Surprise

The following horses are outmatched on paper but could sneak into the money under the right circumstances.

• Anjeru: A front-runner who will try to hang on for a share. Likely to be a factor in the early pace.
• Little Lily: Still a maiden but runs consistently. She runs to her competition level, making her a consideration for trifecta/superfecta tickets.
• Neferu Asty: In a bit of a slump recently, but has shown front-running speed in the past.
• Techno Lemon: Has struggled since moving up in class.
• Watashi Inottemasu: How he adapts to the Nagoya track will be the key.

Expert Evaluation & Race Prediction

By combining individual horse analysis with market sentiment and pace projections, we can further refine our predictions. Here, we look at the latest projected odds and a likely race scenario.

Projected Odds & Market Expectations

The projected odds from netkeiba give a clear picture of how experts and fans are viewing the race.

Pace Prediction – Who Will Take the Lead?

According to netkeiba’s pace analysis, the key to the race flow is how other front-runners, like Gold Letter, challenge the expected pacesetter, Mimozano Kiseki. If multiple horses aggressively vie for the lead, it will result in a fast pace, creating a perfect scenario for closers like Ultimatum who can conserve energy mid-pack. Conversely, if Mimozano Kiseki can easily secure the lead, his chances of winning wire-to-wire increase significantly.

Conclusion: Key Betting Points

In this article, we’ve conducted a thorough analysis of all 12 entrants in the 3rd Next Star Nagoya based on data and expert opinions. To conclude, let’s summarize the key points for building your betting strategy.

• Point 1: The Two-Horse Race Structure
  The core of the race is the showdown between the monster-in-the-making, Mimozano Kiseki, and the ultra-consistent Nidone.
• Point 2: Pace is Everything
  With several strong front-runners, the early pace is the biggest variable. A fast pace favors closers, while a slow pace favors those on or near the lead.
• Point 3: Track Condition & Course Suitability
  Nagoya is a fast dirt track where speed is paramount. If the track is wet, you may need to upgrade horses who excel on an off-track.

We hope this analysis helps you in your handicapping. You can view our final selections and top picks based on this analysis via the link below.

Ready to Make Your Picks?

Check out the expert’s final conclusions to help finalize your bets!See Final Picks on netkeiba