2025 Autumn Racing: In-depth Analysis of Koyo, Perseus, Halloween & Fantasy Stakes

A complete breakdown of betting points for four major races at Tokyo and Kyoto Racecourses in Autumn 2025. We analyze top contenders like Hishi Aman in the Koyo S, Battle Cry in the Perseus S, Marchareal in the Halloween S, and Festival Hill in the Fantasy S, using workout data and stable comments to provide you with winning insights.

Key Points of This Article

• Koyo Stakes: While the rapidly improving 3-year-old Hishi Aman is the favorite, the race is wide open with experienced graded stakes horses like Canicule.
• Perseus Stakes: The focus is on the showdown between Tokyo mile specialist Battle Cry and the returning-to-form Utitam.
• Halloween Stakes: All eyes are on the talented Marchareal, making a comeback after nearly a year-long layoff.
• Fantasy Stakes: A clash of talented fillies aiming for next spring’s classics, including Festival Hill and Black Chalice.

Koyo Stakes (Tokyo Turf 1600m) Betting Points

Race Overview & Contender Analysis

This is a 3-win class mile race featuring a mix of 3-year-olds and older horses. Hishi Aman, who showed a brilliant turn of foot in his last race, is the center of attention. However, with other horses experienced in graded stakes races, this won’t be an easy win. Affinity for the Tokyo mile course will be the key to victory.

In-depth Analysis of Key Horses

Hishi Aman (Colt, 3)

Data Analysis: In his last race, the Kisarazu Tokubetsu (1st), star jockey Joao Moreira praised him, saying, “He showed a fantastic turn of foot.” The way he powerfully extended from mid-pack on the rail to pull away proved he has the talent to compete at a higher class. His trainer, Hori-sensei, commented, “His mind and body are gradually coming together,” and “His breathing is good,” indicating he’s in top form.

Workout Evaluation: In his final workout on the Miho woodchip course, he clocked 51.8 seconds for 4 furlongs and a final furlong of 12.0 seconds at a canter. Comments like “Incredible power and presence” and “Well-built and in great condition” suggest his form is still improving.

Overall Assessment: While his high-strung nature has been a concern, he has remained well-controlled in his races and delivered results. He is the top contender, and as one short comment noted, “This is just a stepping stone.”

Canicule (Filly, 4)

Data Analysis: Her last race, the Fuchu Himba S (8th), was a tough challenge against higher-class horses from a wide draw where she couldn’t perform her best. Jockey Keita Tosaki analyzed the loss, saying, “Ideally, we wanted to save ground on the inside, but with the wide draw, we couldn’t get a good position.” Returning to her own class, a rebound is expected. Trainer Kikuzawa also commented, “The shorter distance is a plus,” making it clear the conditions are more favorable.

Workout Evaluation: Her final workout on the Miho woodchip course saw her clock a final furlong of 11.6 seconds. She received high praise: “Low center of gravity, powerful as ever” and “Full of spirit and ready to go,” suggesting the tune-up has been highly effective.

Overall Assessment: If she can get the ideal trip, stalking the pace from an inside position, she will be the biggest threat to Hishi Aman.

Ask Sexy More (Colt, 3)

Data Analysis: He won his last start, the Akakura Tokubetsu, by adapting to an extremely slow pace and winning a sprint finish. Jockey Nozomu Iwata emphasized his potential, saying, “He’s still running a bit greenly, so I think he’ll get even better.” Trainer Fukunaga showed confidence in the race setup, stating, “We’ve been targeting a left-handed course” and “I think this distance suits him.”

Workout Evaluation: In his Thursday workout, he showed a sharp closing kick on the Ritto woodchip course with a final furlong of 11.3 seconds. He was rated as having “Lively movement,” completely shaking off any initial sluggishness after returning to the stable.

Overall Assessment: As one comment noted, he has the “talent to be competitive immediately,” making him a strong contender right from his first race in this class.

Hidden Contenders

Cerviatt (Filly, 3): Although she finished a distant 13th in the Rose S, it was a baffling defeat, with jockey Christophe Lemaire admitting, “I’m not sure what happened.” Trainer Takano is eager for a comeback, saying, “She’s improving with the cooler weather” and “This is a track where she has run well in a G1.” Returning to her own class on her favored Tokyo course, she deserves another look.

The main focus of this race is the power dynamic between the surging 3-year-olds and the experienced older horses. The 3-year-old contingent, including Hishi Aman, Ask Sexy More, and Cerviatt, shows clear signs of improvement based on stable comments and workout evaluations. On the other hand, the older horse Canicule is coming off a loss in a higher-grade race, and her camp is approaching this race with a clear strategy, stating that “the shorter distance is a plus.” The fact that her team has chosen a stage where they believe she can perform at her best, learning from her previous defeat, is a crucial factor to consider when betting.

Entrants & Final Workout Evaluation Table

Perseus Stakes (Tokyo Dirt 1600m) Betting Points

Race Overview & Contender Analysis

This race brings together skilled dirt specialists at the open class level. With a diverse field including horses who excel at the Tokyo dirt 1600m, some showing signs of a comeback, and others trying dirt for new opportunities, an exciting race is expected.

In-depth Analysis of Key Horses

Battle Cry (Horse, 6)

Data Analysis: As the short comment “unbeatable on this stage” suggests, the Tokyo mile is his best condition. Trainer Takagi asserts, “This time, the Tokyo mile is his best condition, so the race should be easier for him.” His last race, the Ritto S (11th), was at 1400m, a distance too sharp for him. Jockey Nozomu Iwata clarified the reason for the loss, stating, “A course with a long straight suits him,” making that result excusable. The 58.5kg handicap is a testament to his achievements.

Workout Evaluation: In his final workout on the Miho woodchip course, he clocked a final furlong of 12.1 seconds. The comment “He’s had plenty of work and doesn’t look heavy” indicates he is well-prepared despite the layoff.

Overall Assessment: The race setup is perfect. If he can run his race, he will be a strong contender for the win.

Utitam (Horse, 5)

Data Analysis: He showed signs of returning to form in his last race, the Green Channel C (3rd). Jockey Sasaki commented, “He had the feel of his old self back,” and trainer Sugai has given his seal of approval for the course, saying, “The Tokyo 1600m suits him.”

Workout Evaluation: He clocked an excellent time of 51.6 seconds for 4 furlongs on the Ritto training track. His evaluation has soared, with comments like “Unlike last time, his concentration has improved, and his movement is magnificent” and “The effect of the prep race is obvious; his spirit and coat look better, and improvement is certain.”

Overall Assessment: The improvement from one race is immense. If he reaches his full potential, he has the talent to be a star in the open class. He is Battle Cry’s biggest rival.

Trovatore (Colt, 4)

Data Analysis: His first dirt race, the Elm S (12th), can be disregarded as he stumbled at the start. Jockey Lemaire welcomes the shorter distance, saying, “A one-turn 1600m seems better.” Trainer Shikato also has high hopes for his suitability for the Tokyo course, noting, “If it’s a course with a turf start.”

Workout Evaluation: He showed some tension in his workout, leading to the evaluation “not quite in peak condition.” However, it was also noted that “he has power,” so the key will be whether his ability can overcome this.

Overall Assessment: While mental concerns remain, he has the potential to completely turn things around if he can get a smooth trip up front.

Hidden Contenders

Karamatianos (Colt, 3): This will be his first time on dirt, but jockey Ban, who rode him in a workout, had a positive impression, saying, “He seems like he can handle the dirt.” Assistant trainer Nakao is also optimistic, commenting, “He’s interesting in terms of ability.” He was blocked in the stretch in his last race and couldn’t show his full potential, so watch for a change.

In this race, it’s dangerous to blindly trust workout times alone. For example, Kazuprest recorded an exceptional time of 50.7 seconds for 4 furlongs on the Ritto training track, but the analysis included negative comments like “clocked a good time, but” and “movement still seems heavy.” This suggests the time was the result of an apprentice jockey pushing hard, and the horse’s own condition may not match. In contrast, horses like Utitam and J Palms are clearly rated as having improved from their last race, with comments like “the effect of the prep race is obvious” and “shows marked improvement after a 9-month layoff.” The key to this race will be assessing the power balance between these “improvers” and a horse like Battle Cry, who runs well fresh off a layoff.

Entrants & Final Workout Evaluation Table

Halloween Stakes (Kyoto Dirt 1800m) Betting Points

Race Overview & Contender Analysis

A 3-win class middle-distance dirt race. The biggest question is whether the highly talented Marchareal can perform to his ability after a long layoff of nearly a year. He will be challenged by in-form horses like Kanetoshi Gout, who ran well against a higher class in his last start.

In-depth Analysis of Key Horses

Marchareal (Colt, 4)

Data Analysis: In his last race over a year ago (a 2-win class race), he delivered a dominant victory that jockey Danno praised highly, saying, “I thought he was a cut above the rest” and “It was a race that makes you excited for his future.” Trainer Saito Takashi also rates his potential highly, stating, “I have high expectations for his ability.”

Workout Evaluation: In his final workout on the Ritto training track, he clocked a final furlong of 11.9 seconds. Comments like “Moves well despite the long layoff” and “Ready to go even after a long break” show that he doesn’t seem affected by the time off.

Overall Assessment: A long layoff is usually a major negative factor. However, with such strong workout content and the camp’s comment that he is “in a condition where he can run,” there is a sense of anticipation for a well-prepared comeback. If he runs to his ability, he could win this easily.

Kanetoshi Gout (Colt, 4)

Data Analysis: He ran well to finish 2nd in his last start in the Uzumasa S (Open), challenging a higher class. Jockey Takasugi praised his performance, saying, “He showed his stamina,” and the race notes indicated he would be a near-certain winner “if in a suitable race next time.” Trainer Ohashi also acknowledges his growth, saying, “He’s getting stronger.”

Workout Evaluation: His final workout was described as “full of energy,” showing no signs of fatigue despite the short time between races.

Overall Assessment: His last race was a valuable experience against tougher opponents. Returning to his own class, that experience should be a significant advantage. He will be Marchareal’s biggest threat.

Crown Sienta (Colt, 4)

Data Analysis: His last race, the Uchi-bo S (3rd), was his first in this class, and he showed he belongs. Trainer Mizuno is bullish, commenting, “He still had something left in the tank, so I expect improvement and a strong performance.”

Workout Evaluation: His final workout was rated as “his usual body and movement,” showing his consistency. The workout analysis also noted his “impressive physique,” indicating good condition.

Overall Assessment: He is a consistent type who runs to the level of his competition. A poor performance is unlikely, and he is a contender for a top spot.

Entrants & Final Workout Evaluation Table

Fantasy Stakes (GIII) (Kyoto Turf 1400m) Betting Points

Race Overview & Contender Analysis

A graded stakes race for 2-year-old fillies. With many lightly-raced horses, this race tests both their current development and future potential. The performances here will be a significant indicator for next spring’s classic races.

In-depth Analysis of Key Horses

Festival Hill (Filly, 2)

Data Analysis: Her rating of 57.0 is the second-highest in the field. Trainer Shii publicly praises her talent, saying, “There’s no doubt she has top-class ability in this generation.” In her last race, the Niigata 2-sai S (3rd), she ran well despite losing ground when switching to the inside in the stretch, showcasing her high ability.

Workout Evaluation: In her final workout on the Ritto woodchip course, she clocked a final furlong of 11.3 seconds. She received rave reviews: “Her typical sharp movement, showing no signs of the layoff,” indicating she is in near-perfect condition. The “↗” arrow indicating improving condition is also a strong positive.

Overall Assessment: As the short comment “best finishing kick” suggests, her late speed is among the best in her generation. If she gets a smooth trip, she is a strong contender to win.

Black Chalice (Filly, 2)

Data Analysis: Her rating of 57.4 is the highest in the field. She lost her last race, the Hakodate 2-sai S (2nd), after showing a tendency to pull hard. Trainer Take Yukio has identified this as a challenge, saying, “If only she could race more smoothly.”

Workout Evaluation: She clocked an excellent time in her final workout on the Ritto woodchip course, with 51.4 seconds for 4 furlongs and a final furlong of 11.5 seconds. Comments like “Propulsive movement that felt sharper than the time suggests” and “In good condition despite the layoff” show she is also fully prepared. She also has the “↗” arrow for improving condition.

Overall Assessment: As the comment “talented enough for 1400m” suggests, the extended distance and her ability to settle will be key, but her latent ability is top-class for her generation.

Meisho Hakkei (Filly, 2)

Data Analysis: In her last race, the Rindo Sho (2nd), she closed sharply from the rear, showing her strength despite an unfavorable pace. Trainer Honda praised the performance and is optimistic, saying, “I think that race will lead to a good result this time” and “I’m a little excited.”

Workout Evaluation: She clocked a final furlong of 11.6 seconds on the Ritto woodchip course. Her condition is excellent, with comments like “Light movement” and “Condition is stable at a high level.”

Overall Assessment: As the comment “a reliable closer” indicates, her consistent late kick is her weapon. If the pace sets up for her, she is a threat to the top contenders.

In races for inexperienced 2-year-olds, temperament control is just as crucial as raw ability in determining the outcome. Black Chalice’s tendency to “pull hard” was cited as a reason for her previous loss, and Poppet’s stable has noted the need to “settle her well” due to her being “a bit keen.” Additionally, Maple Happy is reportedly “getting a bit edgy,” and the team plans to adjust her headgear. This information highlights that how each camp manages their horse’s temperament will be a key factor. The arrows in the workout data—’→’ (stable) and ‘↗’ (improving)—are also important indicators of condition. While Festival Hill and Black Chalice show upward momentum with ‘↗’, horses rated ‘→’ might need to be considered with caution.

Entrants & Final Workout Evaluation Table

Final Conclusion Published at the Link

This weekend’s four races are all packed with exciting matchups. The data confirms that the top contenders are in excellent condition. To see which of these horses we’ve chosen as our top pick, who is the best horse to build your bets around, our selections for exotic wagers, and our value-packed longshot, please check out the link below for our final conclusions.

Check out the pro’s final picks and betting strategy