[Updated: 2026-01-23 11:59:50] Revised by AI Assistant
Analysis by AI
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Unraveling the Thrilling 3-Win Class Races: A Deep Dive into This Weekend’s Contests
This weekend, the spotlight in horse racing shines on the fiercely competitive 3-win class races, where elite horses battle for promotion to the open class. We’ll be focusing on three pivotal events: the lightning-fast “TVh Award” sprint at Sapporo, the strategic and stamina-testing “Sekigahara Stakes” over middle distance at Chukyo, and the “Niigata Nippo Award,” which promises drama on Niigata’s long straight. Each race features a challenging field, demanding keen insight for successful betting strategies.
This article integrates detailed data from racing publications, historical performance, and sophisticated race pace predictions to provide an exhaustive analysis of these three key races. Beyond mere predictions, we offer a profound examination designed to illuminate the path to victory.
Part 1: TVh Award – A Speed Spectacle on Sapporo’s Northern Turf
1.1 Race Preview: Deciphering the Sapporo 1200m Puzzle at the TVh Award
The TVh Award (Sapporo 11R), a highlight of the Sapporo race card, is a 3-year-old and up, 3-win class handicap race contested over 1200 meters on turf. The race is scheduled to start at 15:25 JST. Sapporo Racecourse is renowned for its unique “deep turf,” which typically leads to slower times and demands exceptional power and stamina. Success here hinges not just on pure speed, but on the sustained ability to maintain a strong run to the finish line.
Expert pace predictions indicate a high probability of a “High Pace (H)” for this race. The expected front-running pack includes ⑤ Namura Rosemary, ④ Maquillage, and ⑦ Tokai Factor. Close behind, in a “good position,” are anticipated strong contenders such as ③ Carpels Perche and ⑫ Mozu Nanastar.
This pace forecast leads to a crucial tactical insight: the heightened risk of a “front-runner collapse” due to an intense early speed battle. With multiple horses vying for the lead, the race is likely to unfold at a relentless, unforgiving pace from the outset. Special attention should be paid to the stable of ⑤ Namura Rosemary. Expert commentary notes, “This time, the final workout saw a joint training session, a first since her debut. This intensified preparation is significant,” suggesting a more aggressive race strategy from the connections. Her recent blinker use, combined with this demanding training regimen, signals a strong intent to take the lead at all costs. The prediction that “Namura will be involved with Maquillage, leading to a high pace” further supports this view. It is highly plausible that horses exhausting themselves in a brutal early speed contest on Sapporo’s power-demanding deep turf could falter in the final straight.
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Such a scenario creates an ideal opportunity for horses that can maintain a composed position just behind the pace, or those who can conserve their energy in the rear before unleashing a powerful late surge in the straight. Specifically, this favors horses like ③ Carpels Perche and ⑫ Mozu Nanastar, who can stalk the leaders. Furthermore, ⑪ Sonamamasomama, noted for delivering “the fastest final section in her last race,” possesses a potent late kick and could make a significant impact. How these types of horses are evaluated will be key to any successful betting strategy.
1.2 Key Contenders: Form, Pedigree, and Winning Prospects for the TVh Award
To comprehensively assess the capabilities of each strong contender, the following comparison table summarizes key data:
Table 1: TVh Award – Leading Contender Comparison
| 馬番 | 馬名 | 性齢 | 斤量 | 騎手 | 父 | 母父 | 専門紙印 | 分析の要点 |
| 3 | カルプスペルシュ | 牝3 | 53kg | 横山 武史 | シュヴァルグラン | ロードカナロア | ○ | Rapidly improving 3-year-old filly with proven form on both fast and deep turf. |
| 5 | ナムラローズマリー | 牝4 | 55kg | 武 豊 | ミッキーアイル | Johannesburg | ◎ (赤塚) | Excellent condition indicated by aggressive training. Significant power improvement. |
| 12 | モズナナスター | 牝3 | 53kg | 吉田 隼人 | モズアスコット | アグネスデジタル | ○ | A deep turf specialist known for her sharp late kick. |
| 11 | ソノママソノママ | 牝5 | 54kg | 斎藤 新 | ビッグアーサー | グラスワンダー | △ | Boasts one of the fastest closing speeds in the field; greatly benefits from a high-pace race. |
Detailed Contender Profiles
③ Carpels Perche: This 3-year-old filly is highly appealing due to her youth and light handicap of 53kg. Her pedigree, a combination of the stamina-rich Cheval Grand and the speedy Lord Kanaloa, is considered ideal for the Sapporo 1200m track. In her last race, the HTB Cup, she delivered a dominant victory in a fast 1 minute 7.2 seconds, finishing 0.5 seconds ahead of the competition. Experts have lauded her “shaving nearly 2 seconds off her personal best” and her “adaptability to fast tracks,” highlighting her rapid growth and high versatility. With three wins already on deep turf, her course suitability is undeniable. She represents the most likely winner, poised to settle just behind the front-runners and unleash a decisive move in the straight.
⑤ Namura Rosemary: A 4-year-old filly by Mickey Aisle, she carries 55kg with jockey Yutaka Take aboard. Expert Akatsuka Toshihiko has marked her as his top pick (◎), indicating high confidence. Analysis points to her “physical growth and power-up,” along with the previously mentioned, career-first joint training in her final workout. While she finished 4th in her last outing, the UHB Cup, these changes signify a strong winning intent from the stable for this race. However, her 55kg impost and the risk of getting caught in a brutal early pace are potential drawbacks. She is an intriguing contender, balancing high potential with significant risks.
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⑫ Mozu Nanastar: Like Carpels Perche, this 3-year-old filly benefits from a light handicap of 53kg. Her sire, Mozu Ascot, has imparted power that truly shines on deep turf. Racing publications praise her as a “deep turf specialist,” with a solid track record at Sapporo (1st and 3rd place finishes). She won the recent Shiosai Tokubetsu in 1 minute 7.9 seconds, showcasing a sharp final 3-furlong time of 34.2 seconds. A rival to Carpels Perche, they are from the same generation and carry the same weight; race dynamics will be crucial. Mozu Nanastar is more reliant on her late kick, meaning the anticipated high pace will likely work to her advantage.
⑪ Sonamamasomama: A 5-year-old filly by Big Arthur, carrying 54kg. Her greatest asset is her explosive late speed, as evidenced by descriptions of her delivering “the fastest final section.” In her previous TVh Award attempt, she stormed home with an astonishing 33.9-second final 3 furlongs to secure third place. The predicted high pace is tailor-made for an追い込み (closer) like her. Although she carries more weight than the 3-year-old fillies, if the race unfolds favorably, she is perfectly capable of sweeping past the entire field in the final moments. She should be regarded as the most dangerous dark horse.
1.3 Final Verdict and Betting Strategy for the TVh Award
The intensity of the front-running battle will be the decisive factor in this race. Namura Rosemary’s aggressive tactics are highly likely to create prime opportunities for those in good positions and for closers. Among them, the two 3-year-old fillies, Carpels Perche and Mozu Nanastar, who are favored by their light weights and proven course suitability, are undoubtedly central to the race.
My final top pick is ③ Carpels Perche. Her versatility to race from a good position, her already proven high class, and her remarkable growth curve all point to her being a step ahead in overall ability.
Part 2: Sekigahara Stakes – Strategy and Stamina Tested at Chukyo 2000m
2.1 Race Preview: The Intersection of Stamina and Acceleration at Sekigahara Stakes
The Sekigahara Stakes, held as Chukyo Racecourse’s 7th race, is a 3-year-old and up, 3-win class weight-for-age race over 2000 meters on turf. Chukyo’s 2000m turf course is characterized by a long straight and a steep uphill climb to the finish, a demanding stage that rigorously tests both positional sense during the race and the stamina required to conquer the final ascent.
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A crucial aspect of this race is the expert observation that there is a “lack of a clear front-runner.” With no obvious pace-setter, the race is highly likely to unfold at a “Slow Pace (S).” In such a scenario, the field tends to remain compact, and the tactical maneuvers between jockeys will heavily influence the outcome. A slower early pace often culminates in an “acceleration battle” in the final straight. Pace predictions suggest that if no one takes the lead, ③ Tagano Dude might set the pace, with ⑩ Willem and ⑧ Granvinos tracking in good positions, indicating an overall “front-runner advantage.”
An intriguing aspect here is the potential contradiction between the AI index evaluations and this tactical race development forecast. The AI index rates ⑩ Willem (314.3) and ⑧ Granvinos (299.2) significantly higher than other contenders. Both are by Kitasan Black, a sire known for producing horses with abundant stamina and strong staying power. However, a slow-paced race culminating in a sharp acceleration contest is not necessarily the ideal stage for them to fully utilize their stamina advantage. Instead, this scenario might favor horses like ⑦ Mickey Twinkle, praised for his “devastating late kick when it clicks,” or ③ Tagano Dude, who possesses the versatility to “lead or come from behind” and dictate the race himself. The divergence between AI’s historical speed-index based evaluations and the specific, unique dynamics of this particular race could be the very source of significant betting value.
2.2 Key Contenders: Talent, AI Rating, and Condition for the Sekigahara Stakes
Combining AI index and expert insights, here’s an evaluation of the leading contenders:
Table 2: Sekigahara Stakes – Leading Contender Comparison
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| 馬番 | 馬名 | 性齢 | 騎手 | 父 | 母父 | AI指数ランク | 分析の要点 |
| 10 | ヴィレム | 牡4 | 松山 弘平 | キタサンブラック | Machiavellian | A (1位) | Top AI rating. Chukyo specialist, but a slow-paced acceleration battle might challenge his strengths. |
| 8 | グランヴィノス | 牡5 | 川田 将雅 | キタサンブラック | Machiavellian | A (2位) | Open-class potential. Good workout form, but a long layoff is the main concern. |
| 7 | ミッキーツインクル | 牡5 | 中井 裕二 | エピファネイア | Mizzen Mast | A (3位) | Possesses a powerful late kick but has temperament issues. Will a slow pace be a blessing or a curse? |
| 3 | タガノデュード | 牡4 | 高杉 吏麒 | ディーマジェスティ | Astronomer Royal | A (4位) | Versatile tactics are his strength. Key player in this pace-less race. |
Detailed Contender Profiles
⑩ Willem: A formidable contender, ranked 1st with an AI index of 314.3. He boasts a perfect record of 2 wins from 2 starts at Chukyo. Trainer Yasuo Tomomichi expresses confidence in his consistency, stating, “He races well and rarely disappoints.” His 3rd place finish in the previous Tarumi Stakes further attests to his high ability. The AI’s evaluation is backed by his consistent performance and strong speed figures. However, as noted, if the race devolves into a slow-paced acceleration battle, his inherent stamina might not be fully utilized, and he could be outrun by horses with superior closing speed. While a reliable anchor, he might require a favorable race flow to secure a definitive win.
⑧ Granvinos: Ranked 2nd with an AI index of 299.2, he is touted as a “horse with open-class potential,” possessing high innate talent. However, this race marks his return from a long layoff. Trainer Tomomichi cautiously remarks, “He’s a large horse returning after a long break, and it’s the hot season. It remains to be seen if he can perform to his true ability.” While his talent is unquestionable, he faces the dual challenge of extended inactivity and the summer heat. From a betting perspective, it might be prudent to consider him for place bets or as a lower-tier inclusion in trifecta/quinella wagers.
③ Tagano Dude: Though ranked 4th by AI with an index of 278.5, he is the most tactically significant contender. Expert analysis highlights his “best distance is 2000m” and his “versatility to lead or come from behind,” praising his distance aptitude and race sense. In a field lacking a clear pace-setter, his adaptability becomes his greatest weapon. His jockey has the option to assess the pace and even dictate the race himself. He has a strong chance to defy the AI rankings and leverage the race dynamics to contend for a top spot.
⑦ Mickey Twinkle: Ranked 3rd by AI with an index of 298.1, his ability is certainly up to this class. Experts describe his “devastating late kick when it clicks,” indicating formidable closing power. While he finished 7th in his last race, it was partly due to an unfavorable pace. A slow pace presents a double-edged sword for him. If he can settle smoothly and conserve energy, he has the potential to sweep past the entire field in the straight. Conversely, the slow pace could lead to frustration or prevent him from settling, resulting in a disappointing run.
2.3 Final Verdict and Betting Strategy for the Sekigahara Stakes
The core of this race lies in comparing the AI-favored stamina types, Willem and Granvinos, with Tagano Dude, who thrives in the unique slow-pace scenario. Ultimately, I believe ③ Tagano Dude offers the most betting value due to his significant tactical advantage in this particular race setup.
最新レース予想
最新レース予想
最新レース予想