[Updated: 2026-01-23 12:06:50] Revised by AI Assistant
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[Updated: 2026-01-23 10:37:31] This article is being monitored for performance optimization.
- Unlocking the Kirishima Sho: A Summer Festival of Kyushu-Bred Horses, Packed with Complexity and High Dividends
- 2025 Kirishima Sho Race Outline – Confirming Basic Race Information
- Derived from Past Trends! Three Golden Rules for Conquering the Kirishima Sho
- Kirishima Sho Past 5 Years Race Results and Trends
Unlocking the Kirishima Sho: A Summer Festival of Kyushu-Bred Horses, Packed with Complexity and High Dividends
Each summer, the “Kirishima Sho” unfolds at Saga Racecourse, far more than just another graded race. It’s a true “Summer Festival” where thoroughbreds born and raised in Kyushu compete across generations for supremacy. This particular clash, pitting young talents from JRA against seasoned veterans from local and other regional circuits, is a race that captivates horse racing fans.
However, its unique entry conditions and rich history make predictions exceptionally challenging. Should one blindly trust JRA-affiliated horses? Or do local horses, with their intimate knowledge of the track, hold the real advantage? Is popularity truly a reliable indicator? These questions, often pondered by many fans, have frequently been answered with substantial, high-dividend payouts.
In this article, we step back from the usual Kirishima Sho buzz to meticulously analyze five years of extensive race data. From this deep dive, we reveal “three golden rules” that can lead to successful betting. Through this analysis, we aim to provide a reliable compass for conquering the 2025 Kirishima Sho.
2025 Kirishima Sho Race Outline – Confirming Basic Race Information
Before delving into predictions, it’s crucial to accurately grasp the fundamental conditions for the 29th Kirishima Sho in 2025. Specifically, the eligibility criteria, which form the core of this race, are the most vital element in formulating your predictions.
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| Item | Detail | Source |
| Race Name | The 29th Kirishima Sho | |
| Date | July 22, 2025 (Tuesday) | |
| Racecourse | Saga Racecourse | |
| Distance/Track | Dirt 1400m (Right-handed) | |
| Race Type | JRA Designated Exchange Race & Graded Race | |
| Eligibility | Thoroughbreds aged 3 and up, Kyushu-bred only | |
| Affiliation/Class Conditions | JRA Affiliated: 2-win class or lower, Local Affiliated: Open class | |
| Weight Carried | Handicap | |
| 1st Place Prize Money | 8,000,000 JPY |
The most crucial detail in this table is the “Affiliation/Class Conditions.” JRA-affiliated horses are restricted to the “2-win class,” meaning they haven’t yet achieved their third win in central racing. In contrast, local-affiliated horses can be “Open class,” representing the top tier of their respective regions. This condition is precisely what prevents a simple power dynamic between JRA and local horses, making the Kirishima Sho uniquely exciting and challenging.
Derived from Past Trends! Three Golden Rules for Conquering the Kirishima Sho
Now, let’s delve deep into past race results to uncover the three core insights for mastering the Kirishima Sho.
Key Point 1: JRA Affiliation is Not Absolute! The Resurgence of Local Horses and the Importance of Jockeys
When an exchange race involves JRA, many fans tend to automatically rank JRA-affiliated horses higher. However, in the Kirishima Sho, this can be a dangerous preconceived notion.
The most striking example of this occurred in the 2024 race, which sent shockwaves through the racing world. In that year, JRA-affiliated Aitaka, the race’s top favorite, finished a disappointing 8th. The race was instead won by Lupinus Tesoro from Kochi. Even more astonishingly, Iron Musume, also from Kochi, secured 2nd place, resulting in a dramatic one-two finish for local horses. This outcome unequivocally demonstrates that the “JRA-affiliated” brand is not an absolute guarantee of strength.
Why does this phenomenon occur? The answer lies in the aforementioned race eligibility conditions. JRA’s “2-win class” includes promising future stars, but also developing horses not yet ready for top-level competition, or those struggling to break through their current class ceiling. Conversely, local “Open class” horses are undeniable powerhouses who have consistently triumphed in their regional racing circuits. Thus, a scenario where a top local racehorse outperforms a mid-tier JRA horse is entirely plausible.
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Of course, this doesn’t mean JRA horses are weak. In 2023, JRA-affiliated Ichiza Winner claimed victory. Yet, even in this race, a Saga-affiliated horse, the 10th favorite, finished 2nd, and an Ooi-affiliated horse, the 11th favorite, secured 3rd, creating a massive upset in the betting. This result indicates that even when a JRA horse wins, the possibility of strong local contenders breaking into the placings is extremely high, and underestimating them means missing out on significant high-dividend opportunities.
Furthermore, the “jockey” factor cannot be overlooked. Jockeys like Nagatomo Daichi (Kochi), who guided Lupinus Tesoro to victory in 2024, or Yamaguchi Isao, who intimately knows Saga Racecourse, possess a perfect understanding of the Saga 1400m course characteristics, pace distribution, and optimal timing for their moves. This “home advantage” provides a significant, unquantifiable edge over JRA jockeys who only ride at Saga a few times a year.
Key Point 2: Favorites Are Unreliable! How to Target High Dividends in a History of Upsets
The history of the Kirishima Sho is also a history of upsets. The low reliability of the 1st favorite, in particular, is a fact that absolutely must be known to conquer this race.
Reviewing the performance of the 1st favorite over the past five years, the trend is crystal clear:
- 2024: 1st Favorite Aitaka → 8th place
- 2023: 1st Favorite Takeno Saiko → 4th place
- 2022: 1st Favorite Lupinus Tesoro → 2nd place
- 2021: 1st Favorite T M Rush → 2nd place
- 2020: 1st Favorite Irogotoshi → 2nd place
Remarkably, the horse backed as the 1st favorite has not won even once in the past five years. While they have performed well, securing 2nd place three times, from a win-bet perspective, it’s a complete shutout. This data illustrates the “unpredictable” nature of the Kirishima Sho, where public perception often diverges from actual race results. In 2023, with the 10th favorite finishing 2nd and the 11th favorite finishing 3rd, the trifecta paid out an astounding 545,570 JPY, creating a historic super-high dividend.
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So, how should one select a core horse in such a challenging race? Here, a fascinating pattern emerges: the success of “repeaters.” Horses that have performed well in the Kirishima Sho once tend to perform well again in subsequent years.
- Lupinus Tesoro: 2022 2nd place → 2024 1st place
- Ichiza Winner: 2022 3rd place → 2023 1st place
- T M Rush: 2021 2nd place → 2022 1st place
- T M Nosatta: 2020 1st place → 2021 3rd place
This phenomenon suggests that “adaptability to the unique stage of the Kirishima Sho” is paramount, often outweighing general evaluation criteria like JRA class or performance at other tracks. Horses that have already proven themselves under the specific conditions of Kyushu-bred only, Saga Dirt 1400m, have demonstrated high suitability. Such “repeaters,” especially those that performed well in previous years but are not currently burdened with excessive popularity, offer greater reliability and significant betting value compared to over-hyped favorites.
Key Point 3: Exploring Pedigree and Running Style Synergy! Special Pedigrees for Saga 1400m
To further enhance prediction accuracy, pedigree analysis is indispensable. Looking at the sires of Kirishima Sho winners, we see a diverse range including Mickey Isle, Transcend, Black Tide, and Pyro, indicating no single dominant sire. However, by analyzing the combination of sires and broodmare sires of top finishers, a clear pattern emerges.
That pattern is the “fusion of power and speed.”
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| Year | Placing | Horse Name | Sire | Broodmare Sire |
| 2024 | 1st | Lupinus Tesoro | Mickey Isle | Chichicastenango |
| 2nd | Iron Musume | Victoire Pisa | Sakura Bakushin O | |
| 3rd | Obakeno Kinta | Makfi | Zenno Rob Roy | |
| 2023 | 1st | Ichiza Winner | (Unknown) | (Unknown) |
| 2nd | T M Satsuma Oh | T M Opera O | Sakura Bakushin O | |
| 3rd | Mr Uranof | Squirtle Squirt | King Kamehameha | |
| 2022 | 1st | T M Rush | Transcend | French Deputy |
| 2nd | Lupinus Tesoro | Mickey Isle | Chichicastenango | |
| 3rd | Ichiza Winner | (Unknown) | (Unknown) | |
| 2021 | 1st | T M Chu-Hai | Black Tide | T M Opera O |
| 2nd | T M Rush | Transcend | French Deputy | |
| 3rd | T M Nosatta | Pyro | Fuji Kiseki | |
| 2020 | 1st | T M Nosatta | Pyro | Fuji Kiseki |
| 2nd | Irogotoshi | Victoire Pisa | Kurofune | |
| 3rd | Dantsu Bright | Fuji Kiseki | Timber Country |
This table reveals that on the sire’s side, we see names like Pyro, Transcend, and Makfi, all known for imparting power and stamina on dirt. Conversely, on the broodmare sire’s side, speed pedigrees synonymous with Japan’s fast-paced racing, such as Sakura Bakushin O, Fuji Kiseki, and Kurofune, frequently appear.
This “sire’s power × broodmare sire’s speed” combination is closely linked to the characteristics of the Saga 1400m course. Saga is known for its fair course layout, where not only front-runners but also closers and stalkers can make their move effectively. To win decisively on such a course, both “power” to withstand fierce competition in the mid-race and “bursting speed” to overtake rivals in the final straight are required. This pedigree combination precisely generates that ideal balance of abilities.
Furthermore, specific bloodlines and owners also warrant attention. The sire Victoire Pisa has produced noteworthy contenders like Iron Musume (2nd in 2024) and Irogotoshi (2nd in 2020, later becoming a champion steeplechaser with two G1 wins), demonstrating a strong affinity for this race. Horses owned by Masatsugu Takezono, known for the “T M” prefix, consistently contend for top spots each year, making them a perpetual threat whenever they enter the race.
Kirishima Sho Past 5 Years Race Results and Trends
Let’s re-examine the three points analyzed so far by reviewing the following table summarizing the past five years of Kirishima Sho results. Comparing the winner’s affiliation, popularity, and trifecta payouts will provide a more comprehensive understanding of this race’s unique characteristics.
| Year | Winner (Affiliation/Favorite) | 2nd Place (Affiliation) | 3rd Place (Affiliation) | Trifecta Payout | Race Highlights |
| 2024 | Lupinus Tesoro (Kochi / 2nd favorite) | Iron Musume (Kochi) | Obakeno Kinta (JRA) | 15,500 JPY | Kochi-affiliated horses took the top two spots. The 1st favorite finished 8th. |
| 2023 | Ichiza Winner (JRA / 2nd favorite) | T M Satsuma Oh (Saga) | Mr Uranof (Ooi) | 545,570 JPY | 10th and 11th favorite local horses took 2nd and 3rd, leading to a historic upset. |
| 2022 | T M Rush (JRA / 2nd favorite) | Lupinus Tesoro (JRA) | Ichiza Winner (JRA) | 1,770 JPY | A quiet year with 1st to 3rd favorites finishing in the money. |
| 2021 | T M Chu-Hai (JRA / 2nd favorite) | T M Rush (JRA) | T M Nosatta (Saga) | 6,380 JPY | JRA contenders showed strength, but a local horse secured 3rd. |
| 2020 | T M Nosatta (JRA / 5th favorite) | Irogotoshi (JRA) | Dantsu Bright (JRA) | 27,970 JPY | JRA contenders dominated the top spots, but the winner was a 5th favorite mid-range longshot. |
As this table illustrates, while some years, like 2022, conclude predictably, others, like 2023, yield astronomical payouts. However, consistent facts emerge: the 1st favorite often fails to win, and local horses are a constant, significant threat to secure a spot in the placings. Combining these three golden rules with this data is your best strategy for tackling the 2025 Kirishima Sho.
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