[Updated: 2026-01-23 12:18:35] Revised by AI Assistant
Analysis by AI
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- 2025 Lily Cup (H3) Race Preview and Runners
- Deep Dive into Past Data! 3 Key Strategies for Conquering the Lily Cup
- Strategy 1: The “Absolute Advantage of Front-Runners” – 4th Corner in Top 5 is Key to Victory
- Strategy 2: Favorites are Reliable, but “Place Longshots” Offer High Payouts in 2nd and 3rd
- Strategy 3: Bloodline and Stable Power are Key. Most Important are “Kadokawa Stable” and Speed Bloodline “Pyro Progeny”
- Top Picks for the 2025 Lily Cup Emerging from Our 3 Key Strategies!
2025 Lily Cup (H3) Race Preview and Runners
What is the Lily Cup? The Deciding Race for 2-Year-Old Filly Sprinters
The “HTB Hai Lily Cup (H3)” is a pivotal race in Hokkaido Keiba’s 2-year-old filly circuit, marking the crucial end of the summer season. This event gathers young talents poised to dominate the future dirt sprint scene, competing for supremacy. Far more than just another stakes race, it serves as a highly anticipated gateway to major national stages.
The race unfolds at Monbetsu Racecourse over 1000 meters on a right-handed dirt track. Exclusively for 2-year-old fillies, all entrants carry a fixed weight of 55.0kg. A notable recent change is the distance: while it was previously contested over 1200m, it has been consistently run at 1000m since 2023. This 200m reduction transforms the race into an electrifying dash dominated purely by raw speed and gate sense, necessitating a fundamental rethinking of race strategy. Adding to its prestige, the winning owner receives a breeding right to Stallion Hot Rod Charlie for the following year, underscoring the production world’s high expectations for this race.
2025 Lily Cup Expected Runners
This year’s Lily Cup once again features a promising field of eight talented fillies. The projected odds suggest a tight competition among the top contenders, promising an intense battle. Please see the confirmed barrier draw and essential information for each runner below.
| 枠 | 馬 番 | 印 | 馬名 | 父名 | 母父名 | 性齢 | 斤量 | 騎手 | 厩舎 | 予想 オッズ | 人 気 |
| 1 | 1 | スルーザミル | タニノフランケル | マンハッタンカフェ | 牝2 | 55.0 | 秋元耕成 | 川島洋人 | 34.2 | 8 | |
| 2 | 2 | ゴールデンリング | フォーウィールドライブ | スクリーンヒーロー | 牝2 | 55.0 | 桑村真明 | 角川秀樹 | 10.8 | 5 | |
| 3 | 3 | リュウノフライト | ホッコータルマエ | ケイムホーム | 牝2 | 55.0 | 宮内勇樹 | 山口竜一 | 3.2 | 2 | |
| 4 | 4 | ポルタロマーナ | フィレンツェファイア | スクリーンヒーロー | 牝2 | 55.0 | 小野楓馬 | 小野望 | 31.7 | 7 | |
| 5 | 5 | ミスティライズ | パイロ | フレンチデピュティ | 牝2 | 55.0 | 阿部龍 | 角川秀樹 | 3.0 | 1 | |
| 6 | 6 | スプリンガフォート | フリオーソ | サウスヴィグラス | 牝2 | 55.0 | 服部茂史 | 田中淳司 | 19.1 | 6 | |
| 7 | 7 | ミソドレミ | パイロ | トゥザグローリー | 牝2 | 55.0 | 石川倭 | 角川秀樹 | 3.5 | 3 | |
| 8 | 8 | トリップス | ゴルトマイスター | クロフネ | 牝2 | 55.0 | 落合玄太 | 小野望 | 9.0 | 4 |
Deep Dive into Past Data! 3 Key Strategies for Conquering the Lily Cup
While nothing is absolute in horse racing, the Lily Cup reveals remarkably clear tendencies in its past results. Data from races run over the fixed 1000m distance, in particular, serve as an indispensable compass for crafting your betting strategy. Here, we analyze extensive past data to uncover “three golden rules” that will guide you towards successful predictions.
Strategy 1: The “Absolute Advantage of Front-Runners” – 4th Corner in Top 5 is Key to Victory
The most crucial and unyielding rule for conquering the Lily Cup is to target front-running horses. Especially in the current 1000m format, this trend is nothing short of “absolute.”
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Past race results powerfully corroborate this fact. Riondarina, the 2024 champion, rounded the 4th corner in 2nd position and maintained her lead to victory. Similarly, Shishamofriend, the 2023 winner, was in front at the 4th corner and held off all challengers. Going further back, Honeypie, who won in 2012 over 1000m, secured her triumph with a classic performance, tracking in 2nd position before pulling away.
This “absolute advantage of front-runners” is not merely a product of chance; it’s a structural characteristic inherent in the Monbetsu 1000m course layout.
- Short Distance: A 1000m race is an electrifying dash from start to finish, allowing no time to catch a breath. With the race decided in an extremely brief time of approximately 60 seconds, “closers” who conserve energy at the back and unleash a late surge simply do not have enough time to recover ground.
- Short Straight: Monbetsu Racecourse’s straight is not long enough for a powerful late run from the back. Consequently, the outcome is largely determined by the time horses round the final corner.
- Race Development: Positioning out of the gate dictates the entire race. A good break and the ability to smoothly join the leading pack are the biggest determinants of victory or defeat.
The conclusion drawn from this analysis is clear. When predicting the 2025 Lily Cup, identifying a horse’s “early speed” and “gate sense” from its past performances is the top priority. Horses that typically settle at the back during a race should be significantly downgraded for this particular event, regardless of their perceived ability.
Strategy 2: Favorites are Reliable, but “Place Longshots” Offer High Payouts in 2nd and 3rd
Another intriguing characteristic of the Lily Cup is the stark difference in trends between the winner and the horses finishing 2nd or lower. Understanding this duality is key to hitting high-payout tickets.
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Firstly, regarding the winner, top favorites very frequently live up to expectations:
- 2024 Winner: Riondarina (1st favorite)
- 2023 Winner: Shishamofriend (2nd favorite)
- 2022 Winner: Steel Grace (1st favorite)
- 2020 Winner: Solo Unit (1st favorite)
As shown, horses ranked as 1st or 2nd favorites have an extremely high probability of winning, making it a sound strategy to select your anchor horse from among the top favorites.
However, longshots frequently get involved in 2nd and 3rd place, creating upsets. This “place longshot” phenomenon is precisely why the Lily Cup is often dubbed a “profitable race.” A prime example is the 2023 race: while 1st place went to 2nd favorite Shishamofriend, 2nd place was taken by 9th favorite Orsolerica (odds of 97.7x). This resulted in a massive exacta payout of 15,050 yen and a trifecta payout of 142,410 yen! In 2019, a 8th favorite took 2nd and a 9th favorite took 3rd, also leading to high payouts.
This trend vividly reflects the unique characteristics of a 2-year-old filly limited race.
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- Varying Maturity: At this stage, 2-year-old horses are still early in their careers and are developing both physically and mentally. Their growth between races can be significant, leading to many horses showing drastic improvements, which makes predicting outcomes strictly by odds difficult.
- Assessing Ability: The market (fans) is adept at identifying the single most outstanding horse (the likely winner), but it struggles to accurately rank the abilities of the remaining horses.
- Race Dynamics: Being a sprint race, even minor stumbles at the start or interference during the race can heavily impact finishing positions. Horses with ability might perform poorly due to unfavorable race development, while others might exceed expectations due to a lucky break, causing frequent shifts in placings beyond the winner.
From these analyses, the optimal betting strategy is the “single-axis multi-bet.” Select one highly reliable top favorite as your anchor horse, and then cast a wide net for opponents (place bets), including longshots. This approach aligns perfectly with the Lily Cup’s tendencies and is a rational method for targeting high payouts.
Table 1: Lily Cup Key Data Analysis (Past 5 Years)
| 年 | 距離 | 優勝馬 | 人気 | 騎手 | 厩舎 | 4角通過 | 2着馬 | 人気 | 3着馬 | 人気 | 馬連配当 |
| 2024 | 1000m | リオンダリーナ | ① | 石川倭 | 小国博行 | 2番手 | ジャイヴトーク | ③ | ボディコンシャス | ④ | 410円 |
| 2023 | 1000m | シシャモフレンド | ② | 落合玄太 | 田中淳司 | 1番手 | オーソレリカ | ⑨ | シトラルテミニ | ④ | 15,050円 |
| 2022 | 1200m | スティールグレイス | ① | 桑村真明 | 角川秀樹 | – | アサクサロック | ② | エイシンシュトルム | ③ | 440円 |
| 2021 | 1200m | スピーディキック | ① | 岩橋勇二 | 石本孝博 | – | レディーアーサー | ② | グッバイ | ⑤ | 330円 |
| 2020 | 1200m | ソロユニット | ① | 阿部龍 | 角川秀樹 | – | レディブラウン | ⑤ | マイハンプス | ④ | 1,060円 |
Strategy 3: Bloodline and Stable Power are Key. Most Important are “Kadokawa Stable” and Speed Bloodline “Pyro Progeny”
Our final strategy point focuses on unseen forces: “bloodline” and “stable power.” In Hokkaido Keiba, it’s common for specific stables to have a strong commitment and proven track record in certain races, and the Lily Cup is a prime example.
Firstly, we must highlight the dominant presence of “Hideki Kadokawa Stable.” Over the past decade, this stable has produced numerous Lily Cup champions, including Solo Unit (2020), Strong Heart (2017), Modern Woman (2015), and Honeypie (2012). It’s fair to say that this stable possesses an intimate knowledge of how to win this particular race. Furthermore, Atsushi Tanaka Stable has also risen to prominence in recent years, managing the 1st and 3rd place getters in 2023 and the 2nd place horse in 2024, making them a force to be reckoned with.
Next, let’s consider bloodlines. The electrifying 1000m dash demands “early maturity” and “absolute speed” above all else. From this perspective, the most noteworthy sire among this year’s entrants is “Pyro.” Sire Pyro is renowned for producing offspring that excel in early dirt sprint races, making his progeny ideally suited for this race. Honeypie, a former winner of this race, was sired by South Vigorous, another prominent sire in the dirt sprint world, underscoring the historical importance of speed.
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The most critical analytical point for the 2025 Lily Cup is that these two elements “converge at a single point.”
- Strongest Stable: Hideki Kadokawa Stable has once again entered strong contenders.
- Optimal Bloodline: Pyro progeny perfectly match the conditions of this race.
- Convergence: Hideki Kadokawa Stable has entered two Pyro progeny: Mysti Rise and Misodoremi.
This is no mere coincidence. It is a powerful signal that a top trainer, who knows the “optimal solution” for winning this race, has intentionally selected horses with the “best bloodline” that align with their strategy, and is sending them out in perfect condition. This “fusion of stable power and bloodline” is the paramount factor for this year’s predictions.
Top Picks for the 2025 Lily Cup Emerging from Our 3 Key Strategies!
Applying the “three golden rules” to this year’s field reveals the horses that should serve as your betting anchors, as well as those capable of delivering high-payout upsets.
Top Pick 1: Mysti Rise
Mysti Rise fulfills all three key strategies at the highest level, making her the strongest contender this year. As indicated by her predicted odds of 3.0x as the 1st favorite, her ability and maturity are considered top-class for her generation.
- Strategy 1 (Early Speed): Her past performances clearly demonstrate strong early speed. Jockey Ryu Abe is a “Lily Cup Maestro,” having won this race three times previously (2020, 2017, 2015). His intimate knowledge of how to ride the Monbetsu 1000m track is an invaluable asset.
- Strategy 2 (Reliability of Favorites): As the 1st favorite, her reliability is strongly supported by historical data, positioning her as the prime candidate for victory. This aligns perfectly with the trend of favorites typically winning the Lily Cup.
- Strategy 3 (Bloodline & Stable): As a Pyro progeny, Mysti Rise boasts the ideal bloodline for this demanding sprint race, combining early maturity with raw speed. Furthermore, she hails from the dominant Hideki Kadokawa Stable, a powerhouse that consistently produces Lily Cup winners. This combination of optimal bloodline and expert training from the leading stable makes her a formidable contender.
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