[Updated: 2026-01-23 11:29:33] Revised by AI Assistant
[Updated: 2026-01-23 10:34:52] Analysis by AI. This article is being monitored for performance optimization.
1. Introduction
The 2025-26 POG (Paper Owner Game) season promises to be exceptionally intriguing, highlighted by the highly anticipated debut of first-crop progeny from exciting new sires, including Contrail. For any POG player, identifying and successfully nominating talented young prospects destined to light up the Classic races is the ultimate thrill and a formidable challenge.
This report aims to thoroughly analyze the POG potential of each horse on your provided list of 2023-born Japanese thoroughbreds, offering expert insights. Our analysis meticulously scrutinizes multi-faceted information based on the supplied data 1, covering each horse’s sire, dam (including dam’s sire), stable (trainer), owner, breeder, and pre-debut training progress and reputation.
Our analytical process comprehensively evaluates the inherent potential revealed by a horse’s pedigree, a stable’s training prowess and 2-year-old race record, the reliability and resources of the owner and breeder, and the early indications of maturity and expectations from preliminary reports. While POG nominations inherently involve uncertainty, this report endeavors to provide objective and insightful information, leveraging available data to maximize your success rate.
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2. Major Sire Analysis for POG 2025-26
In crafting a successful POG strategy, sire analysis is paramount. Understanding a sire’s characteristics—such as progeny’s suitability for early debuts, distance aptitude, track preference, and overall consistency—forms the bedrock for identifying promising contenders. Here, we delve into the key sires whose progeny feature on your list, examining their traits and POG significance.
Contrail
- Profile: An undefeated Triple Crown winner, following in the footsteps of his sire, Deep Impact. Contrail also captured the Hopeful Stakes as a 2-year-old and the Japan Cup as an older horse, accumulating five G1 victories 1. He is widely regarded as one of Deep Impact’s most promising successors 1. Intriguingly, his pedigree still retains an exceptional 5.37% influence from the renowned sire Mahmoud, indicating potential contributions to stamina and underlying strength 4.
- Progeny Characteristics: Early reports on his first crop praise their flexible movement and innate racing sense 1. However, some connections have commented, “I think they are a bit slow to develop, so we’ll take our time,” 1 suggesting that unlike his own precocity (winning a 2-year-old G1), some of his progeny may require more time to mature. This could distinguish them from the immediate impact often expected of Deep Impact’s offspring. Nevertheless, strong aptitudes for classic distances are anticipated 3, and the formidable mental fortitude (bottomless stamina) inherited from their sire could also be a significant asset 4.
- POG Significance: Given his exceptional racing record and pedigree, Contrail’s progeny are evaluated as having extremely high potential. However, the hinted tendency for later maturation 1 is a crucial factor for POG nominations. It suggests that focusing not only on early debutantes but also on those aiming for mid-season progression or 3-year-old Classics could be effective. The Mahmoud influence 4 might further enhance their chances of success over classic distances. Close monitoring of early training reports to assess individual horses’ growth stages will be essential.
Epiphaneia
- Profile: Boasting a stellar pedigree (Symboli Kris S x Cesario), Epiphaneia consistently ranks among the top sires, renowned for his stable production of high-class performers 5. He has sired numerous Classic contenders, including multiple G1 winners like Efforia and Circle of Life.
- Progeny Characteristics: His progeny show a strong inclination for success when their dam line includes Sunday Silence, with 11 out of 13 of his central graded stakes winners having this cross 5. While his offspring exhibit strong competitive spirits, this can sometimes lead to challenging temperaments 7. They often possess substantial physiques, necessitating careful management 5. Though they can sometimes be difficult to bounce back from setbacks 7, Epiphaneia’s progeny generally perform best on turf 7.
- POG Significance: Horses with Sunday Silence in their dam line are particularly noteworthy for POG selections 5. While temperament issues 5 pose a risk, pairing these horses with stables adept at managing difficult temperaments (e.g., Kimura Stable 5) can mitigate this risk. Reports on a horse’s physical development and mental maturity will be vital for making informed nomination decisions.
Kizuna
- Profile: A Japanese Derby winner and son of Deep Impact, Kizuna has achieved remarkable success as a sire, earning acclaim for his versatility. His rising stud fee reflects his consistent achievements in the breeding shed 8.
- Progeny Characteristics: His greatest strengths lie in his versatility and high average performance, producing winners across both turf and dirt, and over a wide range of distances 8. Crosses with Danzig in the dam line are particularly effective 8. Kizuna’s progeny tend to be robust and consistently competitive, and in recent years, he has been bred to increasingly high-quality mares 10. He is also known for siring horses with potent late speed 9.
- POG Significance: Due to his exceptional versatility, Kizuna is a highly reliable sire expected to consistently accumulate POG points throughout the season 8. Horses with Danzig blood are especially worth noting 8. With the enhanced quality of mares he is bred to 10, his current 2-year-old crop may achieve even higher levels of success than previous generations. His progeny are suitable for targeting a broad spectrum of races, from early debuts to the Classics.
Kitasan Black
- Profile: A legendary horse with seven G1 victories, Kitasan Black is a son of Black Tide. His racing career was characterized by remarkable toughness and versatility across distances and track conditions 11.
- Progeny Characteristics: The aptitudes of his progeny are heavily influenced by their dam lines, making generalizations challenging 11. However, colts tend to suit middle-to-long distances, while fillies often perform better over relatively shorter trips 11. Similar to their sire, they can be tough and adapt well to various track conditions 11. A good affinity with Halo blood and Australian pedigrees has also been noted 12. Early reports on some progeny indicate good movement alongside some stiffness 12.
- POG Significance: When making nominations, a careful analysis of the dam’s racing record and pedigree composition is crucial 11. For colts, a strategy focused on their performance over classic distances later in the POG period could be effective 11. While Kitasan Black has produced speedsters like Equinox, it’s essential not to generalize, emphasizing that dam line analysis is particularly important for this sire.
Saturnalia
- Profile: Possessing an elite pedigree (sire Lord Kanaloa, dam Cesario), Saturnalia himself was a G1 winner as a 2-year-old (Hopeful Stakes) and 3-year-old (Satsuki Sho, Japanese 2000 Guineas).
- Progeny Characteristics: Initial results from his first crop clearly show that fillies tend to achieve earlier success than colts 14. Debutante colts were often reported to have dull responses when asked to quicken and showed a lack of burst speed 14. Physically, colts were sometimes described as appearing somewhat heavy or lacking early sharpness 14.
- POG Significance: Based on initial performance, fillies by Saturnalia are considered more likely to earn POG points 14. If nominating a colt, strong individual positive reports (such as impressive training performances) that defy this early trend would be highly desirable. While evaluation may shift as his progeny mature, the current trend favors fillies.
Real Steel
- Profile: A Dubai Turf winner, Real Steel is impeccably bred, by Deep Impact out of Loves Only Me (a Storm Cat-line mare) 15.
- Progeny Characteristics: His progeny are versatile, excelling on both turf and dirt, and achieving success across a broad range of categories 16. They are often praised for their good movement and high athletic ability, with many exhibiting abundant musculature 16. Some of his offspring also display sharp, agile movements 16.
- POG Significance: Real Steel’s progeny often earn prize money consistently, making him a reliable sire for POG purposes. Reports of good movement 16 are a positive indicator. However, while stable, he has not yet produced a G1-level superstar, suggesting his strength lies more in consistency than explosive potential. The Deep Impact x Storm Cat cross 15 is a proven formula for success.
Maurice
- Profile: A son of Screen Hero, Maurice was a formidable G1 winner, claiming six victories over mile to middle distances.
- Progeny Characteristics: The defining characteristic of Maurice’s progeny is a strong tendency for late maturation, with many reaching their peak as older horses 18. As 2- and 3-year-olds, they often exhibit physical and mental immaturity, and challenging temperaments are not uncommon 18. Many are powerful, muscular types, but this build does not always translate to early speed 19.
- POG Significance: Due to their pronounced late maturation tendency 19, expecting significant success within the typical POG period is somewhat risky. Temperament issues 18 also present a concern. However, continuous support from Northern Farm 19 is a notable point, and if their talent blossoms, the rewards can be substantial, making him a sire for more experienced POG players.
Drefong
- Profile: An American Champion Sprinter by Gio Ponti.
- Progeny Characteristics: While his primary domain is dirt 21, Drefong can produce top-tier turf runners, such as Geo Glyph (Satsuki Sho winner), when influenced by a strong turf-oriented dam line 22. His progeny often have powerful physiques similar to Lord Kanaloa’s 23. On dirt, they can handle not only sprints but also middle distances (around 1800m) 21. Their temperament is characterized by a clear “on and off” switch, and they are generally considered highly tractable in races 23.
- POG Significance: While dirt success is the main expectation, if the dam line is strong for turf, their potential on grass should also be considered 22. A favorable temperament 23 is a positive attribute for POG. His progeny’s distance aptitude is generally broader than his own image as a sprinter might suggest 22.
Suave Richard
- Profile: A Japan Cup winner by Hearts Cry. His first crop achieved significant success, producing G1 winners like Regaleira (Hopeful Stakes) and the promising Urban Chic (Kikuka Sho runner-up).
- Progeny Characteristics: His initial crop showed a clear gender-based difference in tendencies. Fillies have been relatively early to perform, demonstrating high capabilities over mile to 2000m (e.g., Regaleira, Corazon Beat, Sweep Feet, Admire Belle) 24. Colts, like Urban Chic, tend to take more time to develop and show their best over middle-to-long distances 24. Many of his progeny possess a forward-going temperament 26. Successful pairings with mares carrying Danzig or Nureyev blood have also been reported 24.
- POG Significance: From the perspective of performance within the POG period, fillies are considered more promising 24, particularly for Classic aspirations. Horses with Danzig or Nureyev in their pedigree are worth special attention 24. Colts may require a longer-term view for assessment, focusing on later-season or 3-year-old Classic success.
Other Sires
The list also includes progeny from other notable sires such as Lord Kanaloa, Frankel, Pyro, Admire Mars, Chrysoberyl, Indy Champ, Le Vent Se Leve, Satono Diamond, Siskin, Rulership, and Gold Ship. For these sires, we will incorporate relevant information during the individual horse evaluations [e.g., 89 (Deep Impact BMS)].
